FedEx estimates it took a $470 million hit in fiscal Q2 ended Nov, 30 due to added costs from ongoing labor shortages, said President-Chief Operating Officer Raj Subramaniam on a Thursday investor call. FedEx Ground bore $285 million of those added costs, he said. The added costs were roughly on par with those in fiscal Q1 ended Aug. 31, when Subramaniam told investors that FedEx Ground was forced to reroute more than 600,000 packages a day because some of its hubs had only 65% of the staffing required to handle their normal volume (see 2109220023). The company is "essentially staffed up" for peak holiday demand, he said Thursday. FedEx is encouraged by its recent “hiring momentum,” and is focused on retaining recent hires “after the peak season concludes,” he said. The company exceeded 111,000 job applications in the week ended Dec. 10, “the highest level in FedEx history,” he said. FedEx is forecasting that the U.S. domestic parcel market will exceed 134 million packages a day by calendar 2026, “a remarkable 70% growth from 2020,” said Brie Carere, chief marketing and communications officer. “E-commerce is expected to drive 90% of the parcel market growth,” she said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said the Inform Act, which requires sellers over a certain threshold to be verified by e-commerce platforms (HR-5502), and the Shop Safe Act, which would ask platforms to make reasonable efforts to screen for sellers that are likely to sell counterfeit goods (HR-3429), both belong in the China package. The Retail Industry Leaders Association asked for legislation that could tackle organized shoplifters selling stolen products online, she told reporters in the Capitol Wednesday. Inform has been accepted by all major stakeholders, but Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., told us Shop Safe has some business opposition. The bills (here and here) aren't part of the Senate China package that passed with 68 votes.

The renewal rate for Amazon Prime customers who have a membership for at least two years has topped 95% for the past several years, emailed Consumer Intelligence Research Partners Monday. Though they spend about twice as much as nonmembers, and shop more frequently at Amazon, long-term Prime members spend somewhat less per visit, said the report. Members with a membership for one year or less spend an average of about $1,200 per year. Customers who have been Prime members the longest, for three years or more, spend about $1,000 per year, it said. Customers with a Prime membership for one year or less shop at Amazon.com an average of 21 times per year, 28 times for three-year or more members. Customers with a Prime membership for one year or less spend an average of $50 per visit vs. $45 per visit for three-year members. Amazon benefits from long-duration Prime members’ “extreme loyalty, which in turn makes the Prime member behaviors more permanent,” it said, but "the value of an individual Prime member does not seem to grow over time." Just 6% of members in a September survey of 1,308 Prime members reported joining in the previous three months, most likely using a 30-day free trial, CIRP said. About 16% had a membership for one year or less. Amazon didn't comment.

U.S. retailers stand to miss out on $682 million in Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales from “inefficiencies” in their digital payment channels, reported the global payments consultancy CMSPI Tuesday. Holiday shoppers who flock to online channels “are more likely than ever to have their payment methods falsely declined,” it said. “This occurs when a legitimate transaction is either blocked or labeled as fraudulent, leading customers to try alternative payment methods or abandon the sale altogether, and shop at a different merchant. These lost rejected sales are only compounded during periods of large transaction volume.”

After launching its first shoppable livestream event on TikTok in December, Walmart is holding more than 30 shoppable livestream events over the 2021 holiday season, blogged Walmart U.S. Chief Marketing Officer William White Monday. Since then, the retailer has tested 15 live shoppable events across five platforms, bowed Walmart.com/live and worked with more than 20 creators and hosts to pilot social commerce livestream events, White said. Its “next act” is to kick off Cyber Week Sunday with social media celebrity Jason Derulo for the first shoppable livestream on Twitter, White said, saying he’s excited to bring customers deals "on a platform they already love.” The 30-minute variety show will highlight electronics, home goods, apparel and seasonal decor and will feature surprise special guests, he said. Walmart sees “high return” from the Twitter platform across “top- and middle-of-funnel content," said White, calling the shopping capability a “natural next step.” The livestreamed shopping event will also be available on Walmart.com/live, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and TikTok, he said. Other Walmart shoppable livestream events this season will appear on buywith, BuzzFeed, Facebook, IGN, TalkShopLive, Tasty, Twitter and YouTube “to make sure we are meeting our customers where they are,” White said. The events’ success so far shows “we’re headed down the right path,” he said, allowing customers to “shop seamlessly while also being entertained.” Retail's future “lies in social commerce,” White said.

Nearly six in 10 consumers plan to shop via a mobile device this holiday season, up from 47% last year, and 43% will shop from a computer or laptop, reported Applause Thursday. Some 69% of respondents said they felt comfortable returning to stores; 45% of those plan to spend less than they did in 2020, per an October survey. Of the 91% who plan to shop online, 68% plan to spend the same or more than in 2020. Digital experiences are gaining with shoppers, with 58% using services like curbside pickup, buy online pickup in store and buy online return in store; 66% are more likely to shop a brand that offers omnichannel options. Applause cited “work to be done,” with 24% of shoppers who used curbside pickup reporting problems with finding where to park and having trouble identifying the curbside pickup option on their phone. Price remained the biggest factor for online purchases for 39%. A disruption in checkout is the top reason shoppers abandon e-commerce purchases, it said.

Walmart+, the retailer’s answer to Amazon Prime, “grew quickly” after launching in September 2020 but “slowed considerably since then,” said Consumer Intelligence Research Partners Thursday. Walmart+ emphasized grocery as the leading shopping category, which boosts average transaction size and visits to Walmart.com, reflecting higher shopping frequency for groceries than other departments, it said. Customer growth slowed through 2021 as COVID-19 shutdowns relaxed and Walmart.com shoppers returned to in-store shopping, it said. Walmart+ members spend somewhat more per visit and visit Walmart.com “significantly more frequently” vs. all Walmart.com customers, it said. In the October quarter, the average Walmart.com customer spent $55 per visit vs. $68 per visit for Walmart+ members. Spending levels were largely unchanged in the 12 months since the membership program launched. Also in the October quarter, Walmart.com customers reported shopping an average 21 times per year online; customers with a Walmart+ membership shopped an average 32 times per year, it said. CIRP estimates Walmart+ accounts for a quarter of the retailer's e-commerce customers in the U.S., some 10 million members. Walmart didn't comment.

Of the 78% of consumers who shop online for holiday gifts, 67% shop at Amazon, 48% at Walmart, 17% at Target, 13% at Best Buy and 8% at Apple, said a Tuesday Jungle Scout report. In-store shoppers plan to buy at Walmart (47%), Target (13%), Best Buy (7%) and Apple (2%) during the holiday season. About 65% plan to buy physical products, including electronics, as gifts; 58% plan to buy gift cards; and 27% will shop for virtual products such as music or streaming video subscriptions, said the report. In Q3, 19% of consumers bought more electronics than Q2, 29% bought the same amount, it said. More holiday shoppers (48%) search for specific brands on Walmart.com than on Amazon (38%). Some 46% of survey respondents shop only online, it said. Sixty-eight percent of Americans say they want to have more fun in 2022; 46% are making travel plans, it said.

Profitero analyzed prices for 15,530 products across 15 categories from 12 leading online retailers July 12 to Oct. 3, finding Amazon and Chewy were the “cheapest” options heading into the holiday selling season, reported the e-commerce analytics company Thursday. Prices at Amazon were 14% lower on average than at competitor sites, it said. Amazon beat 11 of the 12 retailers examined in every category, with Chewy the only company to “match Amazon’s prices in any category,” it said. Walmart and Home Depot were “not far behind,” it said. “Supply issues and rising manufacturing costs will make the 2021 holiday season the most expensive of all time,” said Profitero President Sarah Hofstetter. She estimated online prices “are up nearly 6% since last October.”

PayPal’s revenue grew 13% to $6.18 billion in Q3, slightly below the $6.25 billion high point of its July 28 guidance, “as back-to-school sales and travel were weaker than we expected,” said CEO Dan Schulman on a Monday call with investors. PayPal is experiencing “the impact of global supply chain shortages in our merchant base,” and consumer confidence is weakened “with the absence of stimulus payments,” said Schulman. “With the economy reopening, more people may be likely to do their holiday shopping in store, as confidence in delivery logistics is depressed from last year.” PayPal thinks “almost all of these issues are temporal, and consequently, we expect our revenues will accelerate throughout next year,” he said. Travel volume was strong in June and July, “then reversed” in August and September due to concerns about the delta variant, said Chief Financial Officer John Rainey. Though the company is off to a “solid start” for Q4, its growth rate “still remains slightly below our prior expectations,” he said. “Retail supply chain and labor market concerns which may impact the important holiday season have led us to adopt a more cautious stance for the fourth quarter.” Recent days have brought some improvement, but “at this point in time it's difficult to say definitively whether the stronger turns will persist throughout the quarter, or if this improvement is a pull-forward of consumer holiday activity,” he said. PayPal is downgrading its revenue guidance for the year by 0.5% compared with its early 2021 forecast, said Rainey: “But let me be very clear -- our key strategic initiatives are on track and performing very well.” The stock closed 10.5% lower Tuesday at $205.42. Schulman’s “big news” for the day was that Amazon will enable U.S. customers to pay with PayPal’s Venmo mobile payments platform at checkout, starting next year, he said. “This is obviously a very significant moment in our Venmo monetization efforts.” On market rumors that PayPal was pursuing a deal to buy Pinterest, “exploring all potential opportunities to enhance shareholder value is our responsibility,” said Schulman. But “only a select few deals will meet our very strict financial, strategic and capital allocation criteria,” he said.