Wireless Spectrum Auctions

North America is leading the world in the uptake of 5G with 41% of subscribers signed up for the new generation of wireless at the end of last year, according to the Ericsson Mobility Report, released Wednesday. Ericsson projected a 25% compound annual growth rate in mobile network data traffic through 2028. “Managing this growth while improving the mobile user experience requires continued network evolution,” the report said: “Notably, 5G mid-band build-out is proving to be more energy-efficient and cost-effective compared to the expansion of 4G networks.” 5G subscriptions are increasing in every region of the world and forecast to reach 1.5 billion by the end of 2023. Some 240 commercial 5G networks have been launched so far, Ericsson found. India is having the fastest growth anywhere. Following the launch of 5G in October, “the 5G market is witnessing huge network deployments under its Digital India initiative,” the report said: India reached 10 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2022 and 5G is projected to account for about 57% of mobile subscriptions there by the end of 2028. Paroma Sanyal, co-leader of the Telecom, Media and Internet practice at the Brattle Group, said Wednesday new numbers from Ericsson show Brattle potentially underestimated growth in an April report commissioned by CTIA (see 2304170009). That report said without new spectrum bands allocated for licensed use, the U.S. could face a 400 MHz deficit by 2027 and 1,400 MHz by 2032. “We thought a 23% CAGR was quite high, but now they’re projecting even higher,” said Sanyal, former chief economist at the FCC Wireless Bureau, during a Georgetown Center for Business and Public Policy webcast. She said what the data flow will look like remains unclear. “We have seen so much fixed wireless deployment under 5G, so it’s not just the mobile network,” she said. There will probably be a lot more “data hungry” apps in use, she said. Improved spectral efficiency won’t be enough to keep up with projected data demand, she said, adding that while people say you can put in more towers, “there’s a physical limit to how many towers you can put in, how spectrum can be reused because of interference issues. So there’s always physical limit to what else you can do.” At least 64% of the projected demand needs to be satisfied by increased spectrum availability, she said. Sanyal predicted that once FCC auction authority is restored the lower 3 GHz band will be the next target for full-power licensed use.

House Communications Subcommittee members made the future of the FCC’s affordable connectivity program a major focus of its Wednesday commission oversight hearing, as expected (see 2306200075), but the panel didn’t result in a clear sense of whether Commerce Committee GOP leaders will back additional funding for the initiative. Subpanel Chairman Bob Latta, R-Ohio, and others haven’t committed themselves as either for or against further ACP funding (see 2305100073). Democrats strongly defended the program and urged its extension.

Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., told us he doesn’t plan to seek amendments to the Senate Armed Services Committee’s version of the FY 2024 National Defense Authorization Act involving his push to delay a deal on a spectrum legislative package until after DOD completes a study of its systems on the 3.1-3.45 GHz band (see 2305170037). The 175-member House-side Republican Study Committee, meanwhile, backed restoring the FCC’s lapsed spectrum auction authority for an indeterminate amount of time, in its FY24 budget proposal.

Fixed wireless access is accelerating and shows no signs of slowing down, experts said during a Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) FWA Forum webinar Wednesday. GSA identified announced FWA service offers using LTE or 5G from 535 operators in 186 countries and territories and launched service from 455 operators in 173, per a new report.

NTIA heard a variety of comments, positive and negative, on the viability of the citizens broadband radio service as a model for future spectrum sharing. Comments, posted by the agency Tuesday, were due May 31 on an NTIA report on dynamic sharing and the three-tier sharing model offered by CBRS (see 2305010063). The report was by the agency’s Colorado lab, the Institute for Telecommunication Sciences (ITS).

Telecom-focused congressional leaders told us they’re sticking for now with a potential spectrum legislative package that would allocate some future auction proceeds to the FCC’s Secure and Trusted Communications Networks Reimbursement Program as the best option for fixing the initiative’s $3.08 billion shortfall. Talks on the package have yielded limited progress since January amid resistance from Senate Commerce Committee ranking member Ted Cruz, R-Texas, to major portions of a previous version of the measure lawmakers failed in December to attach to the FY 2023 appropriations omnibus (see 2212190069).

FCC commissioners approved an NPRM 4-0 Thursday seeking comment on potential sharing in the 42 GHz band. Industry officials disagree how much interest there will be in using the band on a shared basis (see 2305300055). But all commissioners welcomed the NPRM.

The 42 GHz NPRM, teed up for a vote at the FCC’s June 18 meeting (see 2305180069), was largely unexpected, though it had apparently been in the works since 2021 when staff for Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel started asking about putting the band to work, industry officials told us. The 500-MHz of spectrum is uniquely unoccupied, with no federal or nonfederal incumbents.

The Competitive Carriers Association urged the FCC to “act expeditiously” to grant the remaining licenses from last year’s 2.5 GHz auction, said a Thursday letter to Wireless Bureau Chief Joel Taubenblatt, posted in docket 18-120. “Doing so would be consistent with significant legal analysis, facilitate deployment of needed services to consumers in rural and underserved areas, and help avoid a harmful precedent that may chill future participation in spectrum auctions,” CCA said: “Between the challenges deploying C-Band and now 2.5 GHz, wireless carriers are struggling to realize the full value of spectrum won at significant expense. The wireless industry must be able to rely on timely access to spectrum resources won at auction.” Acting now will “help restore wireless industry faith in FCC auctions and promote future participation,” the group said. T-Mobile, a CCA member, has been pressing the FCC for access to the licenses it won in the auction (see 2305180057).

Competitive Carriers Association CEO Tim Donovan endorsed the House Commerce Committee-approved Spectrum Auction Reauthorization Act (HR-3565) Wednesday in a letter to bill lead sponsors panel Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., and ranking member Frank Pallone, D-N.J. The measure, which House Commerce advanced Wednesday on a 55-0 vote (see 2305240069), would renew the FCC’s auction authority through Sept. 30, 2026. It proposes to allocate up to $14.8 billion in future auction proceeds for next-generation 911 tech upgrades and up to $3.08 billion to fully fund the FCC's Secure and Trusted Communications Networks Reimbursement Program. “Each of these actions are vital to U.S. competitiveness and national security,” Donovan wrote Rodgers and Pallone. “The lack of spectrum auction authority for the FCC and a strong spectrum pipeline clearly harms CCA members and the customers they serve. Several CCA members are also extremely impacted by the lack of full funding needed” to reimburse providers participating in the rip and replace program. “Beyond the Congressionally-created national security mandate to participate in” rip and replace, “impacted carriers (and the customers and roaming consumers their networks serve) are in imminent jeopardy of network failures and face hard decisions to ‘rip’ but not ‘replace’ due to extreme funding constraints,” Donovan said: The FCC’s upcoming July 15 “deadline to submit a reimbursement claim, triggering the one-year statutory completion timeframe, the continuity of reliable wireless, including emergency services, is at stake in many parts of rural America.”