North America Leading on 5G, but India Seeing Fastest Growth: Ericsson

North America is leading the world in the uptake of 5G with 41% of subscribers signed up for the new generation of wireless at the end of last year, according to the Ericsson Mobility Report, released Wednesday. Ericsson projected a 25% compound annual growth rate in mobile network data traffic through 2028. “Managing this growth while improving the mobile user experience requires continued network evolution,” the report said: “Notably, 5G mid-band build-out is proving to be more energy-efficient and cost-effective compared to the expansion of 4G networks.” 5G subscriptions are increasing in every region of the world and forecast to reach 1.5 billion by the end of 2023. Some 240 commercial 5G networks have been launched so far, Ericsson found. India is having the fastest growth anywhere. Following the launch of 5G in October, “the 5G market is witnessing huge network deployments under its Digital India initiative,” the report said: India reached 10 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2022 and 5G is projected to account for about 57% of mobile subscriptions there by the end of 2028. Paroma Sanyal, co-leader of the Telecom, Media and Internet practice at the Brattle Group, said Wednesday new numbers from Ericsson show Brattle potentially underestimated growth in an April report commissioned by CTIA (see 2304170009). That report said without new spectrum bands allocated for licensed use, the U.S. could face a 400 MHz deficit by 2027 and 1,400 MHz by 2032. “We thought a 23% CAGR was quite high, but now they’re projecting even higher,” said Sanyal, former chief economist at the FCC Wireless Bureau, during a Georgetown Center for Business and Public Policy webcast. She said what the data flow will look like remains unclear. “We have seen so much fixed wireless deployment under 5G, so it’s not just the mobile network,” she said. There will probably be a lot more “data hungry” apps in use, she said. Improved spectral efficiency won’t be enough to keep up with projected data demand, she said, adding that while people say you can put in more towers, “there’s a physical limit to how many towers you can put in, how spectrum can be reused because of interference issues. So there’s always physical limit to what else you can do.” At least 64% of the projected demand needs to be satisfied by increased spectrum availability, she said. Sanyal predicted that once FCC auction authority is restored the lower 3 GHz band will be the next target for full-power licensed use.