Ericsson estimates 5G will reach 1.5 billion subscribers globally by the end of 2024, or more than 40 percent of the world’s population. If Tuesday's forecast comes true, it would make 5G “the fastest generation of cellular technology to be rolled out on a global scale,” said the company. Increased network capacity, lower cost per gigabyte and new use case requirements will be “key drivers” of 5G deployments, it said. North America will lead the world with 55 percent penetration of 5G subscriptions by the end of 2024, followed by northeast Asia (43 percent) and Western Europe (30 percent). ABI Research forecasts the U.S. will beat China in the race to 5G deployments, but China ultimately will have the world's largest such ecosystem (see 1811270001)

The U.S. should come in before China in the 5G race, but China ultimately will have the globe's largest 5G ecosystem, ABI Research said Tuesday. It said China's advantages (see 1808210046) are its vast population, with 160 cities with a population of more than a million and 15 cities with more than 10 million, plus Chinese government efforts to make 5G a cornerstone of its industrial revolution strategy. The researcher said China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom will start large-scale deployments in 2020. Ericsson forecasts 5G will reach more than 40 percent of the world's population by Dec. 31, 2024 (see 1811270028).

The 5G Automotive Association asked the FCC for a waiver to deploy cellular vehicle-to-everything technology (C-V2X) in a 20 MHz channel (5905-5925 MHz) of the 5.9 GHz band. "C-V2X represents a significant advancement ... and is the first step towards leveraging 5G to increase road safety and to maximize the myriad other benefits of connected vehicles," said a 5GAA petition posted Wednesday that included a 128-page test report. It said "widespread implementation of C-V2X" in the U.S. isn't currently feasible because the FCC's 5.9 GHz band rules restrict intelligent transportation system operations to those using the dedicated short range communications (DSRC) standard. "Recent testing performed by 5GAA members demonstrates that C-V2X peer-to-peer mode consistently outperforms DSRC in several key areas," the petition said. "These performance advantages, which include enhanced reliability over an extended communication range, better non-line-of-sight performance, and greater resiliency, can ... provide vehicles and drivers with an earlier, more complete picture of the surrounding road environment. C-V2X’s performance advantages over DSRC are particularly important in non-line-of-sight scenarios (e.g., around corners, through large trucks, etc.)."

Wi-Fi will keep the “connectivity crown” in the 5G era, as chipsets compatible with IEEE’s 802.11ax standard break the 1 billion annual unit shipments barrier in 2022, said ABI Research Tuesday. Though it took several years to develop and ratify 802.11ax, “market adoption of this standard is anticipated to be swifter than the rollout of 5G technologies,” it said. Smartphones will drive the technology adoption of 802.11ax as the market “transitions away” from the 802.11ac standard beginning in 2019, it said. Mainstream adoption isn’t expected before 2020, once the standard “becomes increasingly leveraged in flagship devices from key smartphone vendors,” it said.

The top three smartphone makers will likely face market share decline in the 5G era, said a Monday Strategy Analytics report. “Every new generation of mobile technology has resulted in huge disruption with market leaders stumbling, losing position and in most cases never recovering their former glory.” Each new mobile phone generation has brought major changes in design and uses, it said, noting Nokia peaked during 2G, lost a third of its share in 3G and “disappeared in the 4G world.” Motorola lost 80 percent of its global handset market share in the transition from the 2G peak period to 3G peak, it said. Samsung grabbed that opportunity in the transition to 3G, doubling its share, becoming a global leader with a “first with tech” brand claim, said SA. Huawei led Chinese smartphone makers during 4G, jumping to second place in global market share on an affordable tech mantra, it said. Analysts identified two main groups of vendors vying for 5G share: adaptive local players such as Sharp, ZTE and Sony, which have consolidated cost basis with a smaller, more localized presence, and global scale seekers Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo, which have expanded their presence beyond domestic markets by establishing sales, marketing and distribution resources in enough markets to scale above 80 million units per year. Xiaomi is “cash rich, has strong presence in China and India and Europe and soon will be competing strongly in the Americas with a broad range of smart devices,” said analyst Cliff Raskind. “Deep marketing pockets” and keen consumer insights outside of China will be necessary, he said. Analyst Ken Hyers observed a “complex transition to 5G" and to new foldable, rollable designs at a time when consumers are increasingly reluctant to spend $800-$1,000 or more for incremental improvements. “Competition on the basis of technology advantage will be extremely challenging and inevitably short lived without a healthy portfolio of intellectual property holdings,” he said: The 5G period offers a chance for new vendors to emerge and for long-time “industry strugglers to reinvent themselves while current market leaders face reinvigorated competition.”

Verizon expects the first 5G handsets to be available in the first half of 2019 and this week completed the first call on a Motorola prototype, said Chief Financial Officer Matt Ellis Wednesday at a Morgan Stanley European technology conference. “It's now nice to say we are officially in the 5G era.” The carrier expects to see the global standard version of 5G residential broadband equipment next year and at that point will expand its 5G launch, he said. In October, Verizon went live in parts of Houston, Indianapolis, Los Angeles and Sacramento with fixed 5G (see 1810010028). The carrier is learning a lot from the pilot, Ellis said. “We're not just doing the install and leaving them, we're staying in touch with those customers and getting a lot of good feedback in terms of they like the significant increase in speed they're getting versus their prior broadband that they were getting from another third party.” Ellis praised the FCC's September small-cells order (see 1809260029). “The FCC understands that the industry is going to need incremental spectrum so that the ecosystem fully develops to 5G,” he said. “They've done a good job over the past couple of years identifying where that additional spectrum will come from and then trying to find ways to bring it to market as quickly as possible within the other rules.” Ellis credits the 5G Technology Forum, which Verizon formed with carriers in South Korea and Japan and equipment makers, with accelerating the move. Last December, the first 5G standard was approved, he noted. “Without that pressure from the coalition we formed, that wouldn't have happened … and we'd probably still be talking about 5G as 2020 technology.”

“Priority No. 1” at Qualcomm is to “drive the transition to 5G,” said CEO Steve Mollenkopf on a Wednesday earnings call. “When the world is introduced to 5G early next year, we believe we will be the technology partner in nearly all the commercial launches around the world.” The pace of 5G adoption will “meet or exceed that of 4G,” said Mollenkopf. The company is working with at least 18 smartphone OEMs globally that have committed to launch handsets in 2019 embedded with Qualcomm 5G modems, he said. Qualcomm also secured “the world's first major 5G design win” with a top automaker, “and we are working with numerous other automakers and Tier 1 suppliers to bring 5G to vehicles,” he said.

5G Americas sees importance of ultra-reliable low-latency communication (URLLC) networks in the 5G era. URLLC will enable applications including factory automation, autonomous driving, the industrial internet and smart grid, Thursday's report said. “Mission-critical applications have stringent communication performance and reliability requirements,” said President Chris Pearson. "Low latency is seen as a crucial ingredient with URLLC as a key enabler."

With the “first instances” of 5G services rolling out this quarter, 2019 is expected to be a “seminal year” for wireless, with 5G handsets beginning to hit the market, enabling consumers “to experience 5G technology firsthand,” said IDC Tuesday. Though the “full breadth” of 5G's potential will take several years to arrive, IDC expects the total fifth-generation and related network infrastructure market to expand at a 118 percent compound annual growth rate, reaching $26 billion globally in 2022.

Regulators should make significant new harmonized mobile spectrum available for 5G, including 80-100 MHz of contiguous spectrum per carrier in “prime 5G mid-bands” and upward of 1 GHz per operator above 24 GHz, GSMA reported. Questions are especially relevant headed into next year’s World Radiocommunication Conference, GSMA said Tuesday. “Our 5G future depends heavily on the decisions governments are making in the next year as we head into WRC-19,” said Brett Tarnutzer, GSMA spectrum head. “Without strong government support to allocate sufficient spectrum to next generation mobile services, it will be impossible to achieve the global scale that will make 5G affordable and accessible for everyone. ... This hinges on governments focusing on making enough spectrum available, not maximising auction revenues.” The Free State Foundation urged the FCC to act to open the L and 5.9 GHz bands for 5G "with dispatch looking towards repurposing this band for the use of unlicensed Wi-Fi services,” FSF said of the latter band, which is also attracting tech industry attention (see 1811050030).