Top 3 Smartphone Vendors Could Face Declines in 5G Era, Says Strategy Analytics

The top three smartphone makers will likely face market share decline in the 5G era, said a Monday Strategy Analytics report. “Every new generation of mobile technology has resulted in huge disruption with market leaders stumbling, losing position and in most cases never recovering their former glory.” Each new mobile phone generation has brought major changes in design and uses, it said, noting Nokia peaked during 2G, lost a third of its share in 3G and “disappeared in the 4G world.” Motorola lost 80 percent of its global handset market share in the transition from the 2G peak period to 3G peak, it said. Samsung grabbed that opportunity in the transition to 3G, doubling its share, becoming a global leader with a “first with tech” brand claim, said SA. Huawei led Chinese smartphone makers during 4G, jumping to second place in global market share on an affordable tech mantra, it said. Analysts identified two main groups of vendors vying for 5G share: adaptive local players such as Sharp, ZTE and Sony, which have consolidated cost basis with a smaller, more localized presence, and global scale seekers Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo, which have expanded their presence beyond domestic markets by establishing sales, marketing and distribution resources in enough markets to scale above 80 million units per year. Xiaomi is “cash rich, has strong presence in China and India and Europe and soon will be competing strongly in the Americas with a broad range of smart devices,” said analyst Cliff Raskind. “Deep marketing pockets” and keen consumer insights outside of China will be necessary, he said. Analyst Ken Hyers observed a “complex transition to 5G" and to new foldable, rollable designs at a time when consumers are increasingly reluctant to spend $800-$1,000 or more for incremental improvements. “Competition on the basis of technology advantage will be extremely challenging and inevitably short lived without a healthy portfolio of intellectual property holdings,” he said: The 5G period offers a chance for new vendors to emerge and for long-time “industry strugglers to reinvent themselves while current market leaders face reinvigorated competition.”