As the wireless industry begins transitioning to 5G, it's “doing so with a robust and coordinated ecosystem of carriers, handset OEMs, component suppliers and government support,” said IHS Markit. “A ‘perfect storm’ of 5G capabilities and interested parties are coming together to shape the impending technology transition,” said the report emailed Wednesday, concluding that 5G smartphones are “primed and ready” for a “fast rollout.” Citing Qualcomm’s CES forecast that 30 models are scheduled to debut globally in 2019, IHS said: “With the industry aligned and momentum clearly behind 5G smartphone introductions in 2019, the lead-up to the 5G transition is shaping up to be much more coherent than it was for the LTE transition.” In 2020, the second year of 5G smartphone commercial introductions, IHS forecasts that handset adoption will reach six times the volume of LTE smartphones during the time frame.

Huawei Technologies fired back at the Telecommunications Industry Association for arguing the National Defense Authorization Act means the FCC can bar use of USF money to buy from companies that “pose a national security threat” to U.S. communications networks or its supply chain (see 1812100045). TIA’s views are “far afield of the actual provisions of law relevant to the Commission’s proceeding,” Huawei said in docket 18-89. TIA “repeatedly conflates distinct provisions of the NDAA; for example, by arguing that ‘Section 889 applies to the USF programs’ without distinguishing between different paragraphs within that section that contain different terms,” Huawei said: It “transparently tries to reframe the issue by characterizing any reading of the statute with which it disagrees as ‘creating a USF exception.’” TIA "stands by our comments and reply comments," a spokesperson said.

Google told NTIA it and other companies are developing technologies to improve spectrum sharing. Google commented on the national spectrum policy, as did others though the agency is mostly shut (see 1901230028). “Dynamic spectrum databases and automated admission technologies hold the promise of revolutionizing wireless communications and transforming network deployments by incumbent operators, neutral hosts, and end users, catapulting the United States into its 5G future,” Google said. “Government policies that incorporate opportunistic spectrum use can enable more efficient use, lowering barriers to entry for new products, applications, and use cases, which are essential for economic development and achieving 5G." Google noted the many advantages that will come with 5G. It said use of databases for sharing “is fully compatible with traditional licensing in the same spectrum bands, enabling wireless carriers and other providers to meet quality of service needs.” The GPS Innovation Alliance said spectrum management decisions must consider “the unique characteristics” of global navigation satellite system services and GPS, protecting them from harmful interference.

Former FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler questioned whether the administration is fully committed to cybersecurity as industry moves on 5G. A Monday opinion in The New York Times builds on his recent blog post (see 1901140038). “Leadership in 5G technology is not just about building a network, but also about whether that network will be secure enough,” Wheeler said. “And the 5G ‘race’ is more complex and dangerous than industry and the Trump administration portray.” Wheeler cited self-driving cars: “When 5G enables autonomous vehicles, do we want those cars and trucks crashing into each other because the Russians hacked the network? If 5G will be the backbone of breakthroughs such as remote surgery, should that network be vulnerable to the North Koreans breaking into a surgical procedure? Innovators, investors and users need confidence in the network’s cybersecurity if its much-heralded promise is to be realized.”

T-Mobile is the best positioned among U.S. carriers “to deliver real 5G whenever that reality actually materializes,” BTIG’s Walter Piecyk wrote investors Friday. “T-Mobile’s deep and unused low-band spectrum should enable it to launch real 5G before all of its peers. T-Mobile should therefore be considered a primary 5G investment opportunity for investors whether their acquisition of Sprint is approved or not.” The analyst said if the deal isn’t approved, T-Mobile likely will spend $20 billion on spectrum over the next two years. A likely target is Dish Network’s band 66, which includes AWS-4 downlink spectrum and AWS-1 and paired AWS-3, he said. “If that block or Dish’s band 70 is not an option, $20 billion would provide a healthy budget for C-Band spectrum that could become available as early as 2020,” he said. “Unfortunately, C-Band will not likely be usable for several years.” Meanwhile, T-Mobile Friday named Ulf Ewaldsson, ex-Ericsson, senior vice president-technology transformation, reporting directly to Chief Technology Officer Neville Ray. (See also the personals section of this publication's issue).

The Senate Commerce Committee is delaying a 5G hearing (see 1901090055) because it's likely to include testimony from officials from executive agencies “who would like to be adequately” briefed by staff but can't be during the partial government shutdown, Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss., told reporters Wednesday. Wicker declined to name the potential government witnesses. “They could attend, but in deference to them, I think they should be as ready with staff support as we committee members are,” he said. Wicker earlier told us he hoped the hearing would include discussion about “how [the U.S.] stacks up against other nations” in deploying 5G tech and how Congress can help industry speed deployments. Senate Communications Subcommittee ranking member Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, meanwhile, told us he isn't planning to immediately refile his Streamlining the Rapid Evolution and Modernization of Leading-Edge Infrastructure Necessary to Enhance (Streamline) Small Cell Deployment Act while he evaluates how to potentially revise it. The bill, filed last Congress, aims to implement a “reasonable process and timeframe guidelines” for state and local small-cell consideration (see 1806290063). It faced state and local opposition.

T-Mobile said it's permanently boosting LTE capacity in Atlanta before Super Bowl LIII. “Big crowds need to be able to stream, search, chat and share all they want,” T-Mobile said Tuesday.

New Street Research said a review of filings on T-Mobile buying Sprint shouldn’t be “comforting for those who think a decision is near or nearly certain to be favorable.” The ex parte filings provide the best evidence of what is being examined at the FCC, and by extension, DOJ, New Street said. “We have not yet seen any robust filings on conditions, suggesting that as least so far, the policy makers have not signaled to opponents that they are favorably inclined but would like to know what conditions could ameliorate what they regard as minor harms,” the firm emailed investors Sunday. “We also have not seen new filings on the ‘cable-as-competitor argument’ or the argument that Sprint can’t compete in a 5G world. We interpret the absence to suggest those arguments weren’t working so the advocates are not spending time on them.” The companies didn't comment.

For 2019, the cable ISP market will see extra pressure on legacy multichannel subscriptions due to launch of AT&T, Comcast and Disney online offerings and little impact from 5G rollout due to that initial deployment being limited and to belated entry of Apple mobile handsets, Kagan said Friday. Kagan said those online offerings could mean long-term disruption of content licensing deals, especially with direct streaming video competitors, and put pressure on incumbent subscription VOD service growth. Kagan expects a "bloated" online subscription market, crowded with $10 to $15 offerings. It said 5G's rollout could put downward pressure on wireline broadband rate increases, while its enabling of smooth, reliable streaming of live events could make vMVPDs more attractive to subscribers. The researcher said competition with 5G for customers will likely deter widespread implementation of usage-based billing. Meanwhile, telcos likely will focus on fiber deployment to support fiber to the home and 5G backhaul, it said. Kagan said legacy MVPDs could move toward partnership with vMVPD services, offering broadband/video bundles, instead of dealing with the hassle of video distribution. AT&T could make an "abrupt deliver strategic shift" and quit marketing satellite services to new customers, having indicated it's not planning to launch more satellites, Kagan said. AT&T didn't comment. Kagan also predicted a crackdown on password sharing and sluggish deal activity.

ABI Research forecasts the global smartphone market will rise 4.1 percent to just under 1.6 billion shipments in 2019, with 5G and flexible displays the “catalysts” that will “galvanize” the industry and drive replacement-device growth. For 5G to become the “silver bullet” that smartphone vendors are pinning their hopes on will require that they adopt new messaging strategies for the consumer, it said Wednesday. With 5G as the “fulcrum,” the smartphone market will “witness the introduction of new device form factors that leverage a host of new and improved technologies,” said ABI. Vendors “will need to ensure that these latest innovations provide a clear purpose to consumers, offering strong reasons for purchase, or else they run the risk of becoming low-volume niche products,” it said.