Kagan Sees 5G Pressure on Cable Broadband Bills, vMVPD Password Sharing Crackdown

For 2019, the cable ISP market will see extra pressure on legacy multichannel subscriptions due to launch of AT&T, Comcast and Disney online offerings and little impact from 5G rollout due to that initial deployment being limited and to belated entry of Apple mobile handsets, Kagan said Friday. Kagan said those online offerings could mean long-term disruption of content licensing deals, especially with direct streaming video competitors, and put pressure on incumbent subscription VOD service growth. Kagan expects a "bloated" online subscription market, crowded with $10 to $15 offerings. It said 5G's rollout could put downward pressure on wireline broadband rate increases, while its enabling of smooth, reliable streaming of live events could make vMVPDs more attractive to subscribers. The researcher said competition with 5G for customers will likely deter widespread implementation of usage-based billing. Meanwhile, telcos likely will focus on fiber deployment to support fiber to the home and 5G backhaul, it said. Kagan said legacy MVPDs could move toward partnership with vMVPD services, offering broadband/video bundles, instead of dealing with the hassle of video distribution. AT&T could make an "abrupt deliver strategic shift" and quit marketing satellite services to new customers, having indicated it's not planning to launch more satellites, Kagan said. AT&T didn't comment. Kagan also predicted a crackdown on password sharing and sluggish deal activity.