Warner Bros. Discovery's joint streaming service combining HBO Max and Discovery+ will launch in spring 2023 rather than the summer, CEO David Zaslav said last week as the company announced Q3 results. The programmer at the same time will focus less on being streaming-primary, he said. He said the strategy of focusing on subscriber numbers at the expense of theatrical and linear TV results "and spend[ing] money with abandon, while making a fraction in return in the service of growing sub numbers, has ultimately proven to be deeply flawed." Discovery said ad revenue was down 11% globally year over year, partly due to macroeconomic conditions. Shares closed Friday at $10.41, down 13%.
Netflix’s foray into advertising, the Basic with Ads tier, launched with a “high quality list of advertisers,” LightShed Partners analyst Rich Greenfield wrote investors Thursday on first impressions of the $6.99 monthly service. The list of 30 advertisers Greenfield noted Friday, after the first day with the service, included Beats, Buick, CBS, Cerave, Duracell, Experian, Google Pixel, Holiday Inn, Michelob and Target. Greenfield noted a “surprising number of luxury retail brands,” with Bulgari, Tiffany, Prada and Louis Vuitton, but only one insurance company, Progressive. “Interestingly, there were no telecom companies,” he said. Greenfield reported a mixed bag of results, with Seinfeld having no ads at all, but Stranger Things starting with a 30-second pre-roll for Apartments.com. When he clicked to the end of the first episode, he was fed 75 seconds of ads “since we jumped over multiple ad breaks” for Best Western, GMC, Garnier and Tiffany, Greenfield said. An effort to skip the ads put him in another 75-second cycle, this time for Sleep Number, Target and Booking.com. The Netflix homepage showed no ad units; they were all inside individual shows or movies, he said. “The irony of seeing linear TV ads on Netflix,” said the analyst: “Who would have ever imagined that?”
Eleven free ad-supported streaming TV (FAST) channels from AMC Networks are coming to The Roku Channel under an expanded multiyear agreement, said the companies Thursday. The deal includes an exclusive channel, AMC Showcase, featuring AMC dramas including Mad Men. AMC+, Shudder and Acorn TV will continue to be available via Premium Subscriptions on The Roku Channel, they said, and AMC’s Hidive anime service will launch as a premium subscription later. The deal also includes more ad-supported VOD content from AMC, including movies and reality TV shows from WE tv, they said.
The Fox Sports app is now available on Vizio smart TVs, the companies said Thursday. Tubi, Fox Nation and Fox Now will continue to be available on Vizio TVs, and Fox Weather was added to Vizio’s WatchFree+ along with existing Fox ad-supported channels LiveNow and Fox Soul. As part of the expanded agreement, Vizio Ads will have access to Fox’s premium inventory for “audience-based opportunities with advertisers,” they said.
Charter and Comcast's streaming platform joint venture will operate as Xumo, expanding the brand from the free ad-supported TV service (FAST) to an “ecosystem” that includes streaming devices, content and a platform for partners “to reach audiences at scale,” they said Wednesday. Flex, the 4K streaming player Comcast licensed to the joint venture, will become Xumo Stream Box, and XClass TV will become Xumo TV, they said, with both using Comcast’s platform. Xumo will go to market with the first branded devices late next year, distributed by Comcast, Charter and Walmart, they said. The Xumo FAST service, which has “hundreds” of linear channels and on-demand content, will be rebranded Xumo Play and continue to be available as an app on other streaming platforms, said the MVPDs.
Amazon expanded the menu for Prime members, announcing Tuesday they have access via Amazon Music to 100 million songs -- up from 2 million -- in shuffle mode, ad-free and at no additional cost to their membership. The company raised the price of a Prime membership in February to $14.99 a month from $12.99, or $139 a year, from $119. Users can shuffle play any artist, album or playlist, plus stream a selection of All-Access playlists on demand, it said. Prime members can also access what Amazon said is the largest catalog of “ad-free top podcasts," plus ones premiering globally exclusively on Amazon Music. The streaming audio service added a Podcast Previews feature, allowing listeners to sample a “soundbite” from a podcast episode to make it easier to discover new content. Amazon Music Unlimited ($8.99 a month) steps up users to on-demand access to albums, playlists and over 100 million songs in HD, along with songs in Ultra HD and spatial audio.
Roku, set to report Q3 earnings Wednesday, is facing near-term challenges, including reduced variable advertising spending and inflationary pressure affecting smart TV sales and resulting user account growth, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter wrote analysts Monday. The streaming platform company “continues to invest heavily, resulting in unpalatable results for investors,” Pachter said. Most of Roku’s ad revenue is derived from "the scatter market, and scatter budgets are the first to go when macroeconomic pressures hit," he said. Since Roku is a relatively new ad partner, "this hits Roku disproportionately versus traditional TV broadcasters." Wedbush expects Roku’s user base to grow globally to make it a “compelling outlet” for advertisers, he said. Once macroeconomic trends improve, Wedbush sees “significant runway ahead for shifting ad dollars from linear TV to digital,” and Roku is positioned to take growing share of that shift, he said. But shares will “remain rangebound” for the next few quarters, Pachter said, lowering the price target from $85 to $75, while maintaining an “outperform” rating on the stock. Shares closed 1.8% higher Monday at $55.44.
The traditional TV ecosystem “is under duress,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Geetha Ranganathan in a Thursday report, citing advertiser pullbacks and affiliate-fee pressure from cord cutting. Profits are "being crushed" by rising streaming content costs, she said. Bloomberg believes “the worst is over for the streaming story,” as Netflix had “better-than-expected” Q3 subscriber gains and Q4 guidance and could get a user growth boost with the upcoming ad tier. Still, she said, “there’s no question that gains have slowed compared with the heady growth during the pandemic.” Disney+ will benefit from better content, new market launches and a lower priced ad-supported tier toward year-end, she noted, and Paramount+ will benefit from new geographic launches. On the downside, revenue at ad-based services such as Pluto, Tubi and Peacock could be at risk in an economic downturn, Ranganathan said. “The focus for media companies has now shifted to long-term earnings growth from user gains,” she said. Though the TV ad market has been bolstered by political ads and “robust price increases,” the long-term view “is bleak,” she said. TV ads have been “fairly resilient” so far, but “uncertainty is building.” The ad market has shown some signs of softening, but price increases averaged 8%-9%, she said, citing industry executives. Netflix's and Disney’s ad-supported tiers could divert spending away from traditional TV longer term, she said. TV advertising “will be the first casualty” if there’s a recession, Ranganathan said, if consumers cut back spending and cord cutting accelerates. Affiliate-fee gains, stable in 2002, could be threatened in 2023, “especially as more marquee content shifts outside the linear ecosystem.” Sports rights moving to streaming services are a risk to the traditional pay-TV bundle, said the analyst, citing Amazon’s deal for Thursday Night Football, “which could potentially fan the flames of cord-cutting.” NFL Sunday Ticket is also rumored to eventually go to streaming, and digital could also be a major component of the new NBA deal, she said.
Pivotal Research Group raised Netflix to a “buy” from “sell,” analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak wrote investors Wednesday. PRG increased its subscriber forecast from 5.5 million to 15 million on what it believes will be a successful conversion of “effective pirates” to paying subscribers, plus short-term subscriber benefits of launching its ad-supported service next week. Wlodarczak is concerned about “consumer churn” down to $7 ad-supported tiers, “particularly in a recession,” though that isn’t likely to be an issue until second-half 2023, he said. The analyst views competitor price hikes as “fundamentally positive.” Despite growing competition in the streaming video space, Netflix “provides the most unique and powerful streaming experience globally” and has the opportunity to accelerate subscriber growth over the next year, he said. Wlodarczak expects co-CEO Reed Hastings to “look to sell” the streaming service as early as 2024.
Apple's price increases for its Music and TV+ streaming services and its One service bundle, which quietly took effect Monday, come in a year when 61% of consumers believe they’re paying too much for streaming services, said eMarketer Tuesday, citing April Fandom data. Prices “have only risen since then,” said eMarketer analyst Jeremy Goldman, noting increases from Disney+ and Hulu. In addition to raising monthly fees $1 for the individual plan (now $10.99) and $2 for the family plan (now $16.99), Apple added $2 to the Apple TV+ rate (now $6.99 a month) and $2 to the Apple One bundle, which combines Arcade, iCloud+ storage, News+ and Fitness+ for $16.95 monthly. “With these hikes, Apple is testing how much its brand equity is worth to consumers,” Goldman said, saying, “It’s entirely possible that consumers are willing to pay one or two dollars more to Apple even if it means canceling, say, their Peacock or Discovery+ subscriptions.” As of March, Spotify was the digital audio service used most by U.S. teens and adults, at 35%, eMarketer said. YouTube Music was second at 18%, followed by Pandora (15%), Apple Music (12%) and iHeartRadio (6%). In addition to subscription hikes, Apple is also reportedly considering an advertising model for TV+, Goldman said. Apple didn’t comment.