Revenue from direct-to-satellite connectivity for mobile phones and IoT could reach $9 billion annually for satellite operators by 2030, Kaleido Intelligence said Wednesday. There could be as many as 460 million IoT connections by then, it said. Services this year mainly are smartphone messaging applications and support for limited sensor-based applications for narrowband IoT devices, with higher throughput services not gaining traction until around 2026, it said. The 3rd Generation Partnership Project's Release 18 for non-terrestrial networks could lead to better monetization opportunities, it said.

An aggregate cap on all interference caused by later-licensed non-geostationary orbit fixed service satellite systems would be "unworkable and unnecessary [and] only hinder competition now to solve a problem that does not now -- and may never -- exist," Amazon's Kuiper said in a docket 21-456 filing Tuesday. The aggregate cap argument seems more about protecting earlier-licensed systems from newer ones than preservation of spectrum stability, it said. Amazon repeated its arguments for instead using a degraded throughput methodology (see 2203280029), saying that would protect incumbent systems since new entrants couldn't start operating until it completes coordination with earlier systems or demonstrates the entire system wouldn't increase the incumbent's unavailability or decrease its throughput.

The FCC needs to make clear that any satellite operation waiver in bands without an international allocation must be on a noninterference, non-protection basis, the National Radio Astronomy Observatory said Friday in docket 22-411. It said a condition on any such waiver is that nonconforming applications don't contain frequency assignments subject to ITU "additional allocation" rules. Waivers also should be conditioned on demonstrating unwanted emissions won't generate harmful interference in bands subject to the ITU rules, and compatibility "should be based on demonstrations of good evidence, not good faith," it said. Warning the U.S. is "becoming a dumping ground for the world’s junk satellite applications," NRAO said the commission "should apply more lenient acceptance criteria only to domestic applicants and domestic-licensed payloads, if at all."

SpaceX's request to use the 1.6/2.4 GHz band for direct-to-device service (see 2302080001) is a "lawless, pirate application," Dish Network told the FCC International Bureau Friday, largely repeating its comments made last year on SpaceX's since-dropped request to use the 2 GHz band to add mobile satellite service (see 2302070069).

The FAA is proposing SpaceX pay a $175,000 civil penalty for failure to submit launch collision analysis trajectory data to the agency before its Aug. 19 Falcon 9 launch of Starlink satellites. The FAA said Friday SpaceX has 30 days to respond after receiving its enforcement letter. The company didn't comment.

SpaceX asked the FCC to modify its first-generation constellation authorization and allow use of updated beam-forming and digital processing technologies. In an International Bureau application Wednesday, SpaceX said the narrower beam capabilities would allow more targeted coverage and better frequency reuse. It said it doesn't plan to deorbit existing first-gen satellites any faster, but their replacements would have upgraded tech.

The National Academies of Sciences study on Ligado (see 2209090032), plus Iridium's own analysis, show a single Ligado user could cause harmful interference to Iridium terminals operating within a significant range from the Ligado emitter, Iridium representatives told FCC staffers including Office of Engineering and Technology acting Chief Ron Repasi, per a docket 12-340 filing Thursday. It repeated its call for a stay and reversal of the agency's Ligado authorization (see 2212270044).

Increasing reliance on and commercial interest in outer space means space "demands a new status" and should be designated critical infrastructure, Space Foundation CEO Tom Zelibor said Thursday in a webinar. Such a declaration would allow mobilizing policy and programs that better integrate it into resilience planning and coordination, helping safeguard the growing space economy, he said. There might have been a premature rush by space companies to go public via special purpose acquisition companies, said Jeffrey Manber, Voyager Space president-international and space stations. As many are falling short of expectations in their performance, their stock prices are down, and that could turn off a generation of investors to space, he said. He said there needs to be attention about whether sanctions on Russia could hinder its ability to maintain its International Space Station commitments. Congress is leaning toward keeping the ISS operational at least through 2030, but "I don't believe it's up to Congress," he said. U.S. export policy is unduly hampering commercial space operators, said Kari Bingen, Center for Strategic and International Studies senior fellow. She said operators will need access to international markets to help ensure commercial space isn't overly reliant on government contracts.

Smartphones using Qualcomm chips that tie to Iridium's L-band low earth orbit constellation will start to hit the market in the second half of this year, but those chips will likely end up in a wider array of consumer products over time, Iridium CEO Matt Desch said Thursday as the company announced Q4 2022 results. He said the chips will likely be used eventually in devices including laptops, tablets and cars. He said Iridium will increase capital spending to support the Qualcomm partnership. For the quarter, it had revenue of $193.8 million, up from $155.9 million the same quarter a year earlier. Chief Financial Officer Tom Fitzpatrick said revenue and subscriber numbers were both up sizably in 2022 and it expects notable growth in 2023 in its IoT, broadband, voice and data services businesses. William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma said in a note the Snapdragon Satellite service partnership with Qualcomm is expected to generate material revenue in 2024. There's an addressable market of 80 million to 100 million premium smartphone shipments annually in the near term, and that there's no major cost barrier for Qualcomm that prevents the Iridium service from expanding to tier-2 Android phones doubles the addressable market to 200 million annual smartphone shipments, DiPalma said. He said the Iridium satellite messaging service could motivate smartphone makers to use Qualcomm chips over MediaTek chips.

With satellite data capacity growing exponentially in coming years, expect "intense" price competition, Northern Sky Research founder Chris Baugh said Wednesday in a webinar. Satcom operators wanting to grow need a telco strategy for integrating their capacity into terrestrial telco networks, said analyst Lluc Palerm. Baugh said capacity has historically increased a few percentage points per year, but it will jump 254% 2021 through 2023. Low earth orbit constellations and new geostationary orbit (GSO) high-throughput satellites (HTS) will drive up that capacity even faster in coming years, Baugh said. He said the satcom industry is at the early stages of oversupply, and steep GSO pricing declines in 2017-2019 have moderated, but that decline trend will accelerate again as GSO HTS capacity floods the market in the next couple of years. Palerm said integration with telcos requires adoption of standards -- "something the satellite industry hasn't been particularly good at" -- and adoption of 5G standards will be key to telcos' easy adoption of satellite services. He said there also should be more work creating an ecosystem of terrestrial telco partnerships. The direct-to-device marketplace is a major opportunity for satellite since its inherent simplicity -- existing mobile phones connecting with satellite coverage -- will drive a lot of demand, Palerm said.