5G networks will generate 26 percent of wireless service revenue in 2024, but won’t boost overall performance of “a stagnating global wireless market,” reported Strategy Analytics Monday. The 5G market will begin to build “real momentum” in 2021 as network coverage improves, phone prices fall and use cases mature, said the research firm. From 2012 to 2018, 4G grew from 4 percent to 61 percent of all mobile subscriptions worldwide, but service revenue increased by less than 1 percent: “5G’s impact will be equally disappointing,” it said. “There is little to suggest from early 5G launch plans that any willingness to pay a 5G premium can be attached to the service” vs. the device, said analyst Phil Kendall. When 5G device prices begin to fall in 2021, operators will be challenged to monetize the “significant additional capacity that the more widely deployed 5G networks will bring,” he said: Operators can succeed by executing based on customers’ 5G needs vs. “who has the fastest network and biggest data plans.” 4G LTE networks will host more than 6 billion subscriptions by year-end 2024, comprising two-thirds of all wireless subscriptions, said analyst David Kerr. He said that leaves “considerable time” for 4G LTE platforms to evolve through LTE-Advanced and LTE-Advanced Pro technologies, which have a “bright future” in certain Africa and Middle East markets.

Worries 5G will harm NOAA weather forecasting have "little to no factual foundation" and seem based on a problematic Commerce Department propagation analysis, High Tech Forum founder Richard Bennett blogged Wednesday. He said NOAA, doing simulations of radiation produced by 5G at frequencies near where its satellite-based advanced technology microwave sounder would measure water vapor in the air ignores propagation characteristics of 5G. He said industry should devote resources to working with NOAA on creating meaningful interference models. “The huge guard band would normally be more than enough to protect neighboring bands -- after all, we separate most allocations by 2.5-10 MHz,” Bennett said. “There are already thousands of microwave allocations immediately below the NOAA band, with no separation at all. 5G will work in much the same way as today’s microwave data systems, so there’s no obvious reasons why it would interfere when incumbent systems don’t.” Commerce didn't comment Thursday.

Finding a price point for 5G will take time, AT&T CEO-Communications John Donovan said Wednesday at a Credit Suisse conference. “Ultimately, it's going to be a function of the value to the consumers and your competition, so it's hard to say,” he said: In some applications, fifth generation “will be worth a lot and certain applications, it will be worth a little.” The company is “certainly the leader” in 5G in the U.S. and perhaps the world, Donovan said. AT&T is targeting business customers in its initial 19 deployments, which have all been targeted, Donovan stressed. Initial deployments were in a hospital in Chicago and Samsung robotic manufacturing plant in Austin.

Sens. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and five other senators expressed concern to the FCC and DOD Wednesday about Huawei's involvement in developing the spectrum access system (SAS) and environmental sensing capability (ESC) technologies for sharing the 3.5 GHz band. They wrote acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan and FCC Chairman Ajit Pai that they're "alarmed" Huawei is a member of the Wireless Innovation Forum's Spectrum Sharing Committee. The company is under scrutiny from lawmakers concerned about how it could affect security of 5G technology given its role in deployments in other countries (see 1905230066). President Donald Trump's executive order last month bars some foreign companies' technology from U.S. networks and the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security filed a notice adding Huawei and affiliates to a list of entities subject to export administration regulations (see 1905160081). BIS issued a general license temporarily allowing certain transactions by Huawei and the affected affiliates through Aug. 19 (see 1905210013). Trump later said sanctions against Huawei could be part of trade negotiations with China (see 1905240038). The senators asked DOD and the FCC about the "long-term implications" of Huawei's WinnForum involvement "for use of SAS and ESC technology specifically and spectrum sharing generally" and whether the WinnForum work gives the company "unique knowledge" about current Navy use of the 3.5 GHz band. They want to know what the agencies are doing to "fully assess Huawei’s involvement in SAS and ESC development" and "what steps are being taken to mitigate Huawei’s further involvement" in the WinnForum work. The other senators signing the letter included: Susan Collins, R-Maine; John Cornyn, R-Texas; Tom Cotton, R-Ark.; Ed Markey, D-Mass.; and Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska. The FCC and DOD didn't comment Thursday.

Citigroup saw surprising some results of the 24 and 28 GHz auctions, released Monday (see 1906030063). “Verizon extended its leading position in the 28 GHz band while T-Mobile and AT&T bought nationwide footprints at 24 GHz,” Citi's Michael Rollins told investors. “US Cellular was a surprisingly sizable bidder in both auctions, largely within its existing footprint. Starry was also a meaningful winner.” Rollins said that “broad-based participation by three of the four national carriers, US Cellular, and Starry reinforce prospects for positive business cases for millimeter wave spectrum.” T-Mobile won nationwide spectrum at 24 GHz “despite public comments about the usability of mmWave spectrum outside of dense urban areas," the analyst said. New Street’s Jonathan Chaplin said wireless players can now freely negotiate deals, at least until the next auction starts Dec. 10. “Results seem to support the view that mmWave has very limited utility,” Chaplin wrote: “There were dozens of sophisticated participants and dozens more that didn’t show up; we would assume they are all similarly well placed to assess the utility of mmWave as Verizon and AT&T.”

FCC Commissioner Mike O’Rielly told the Wi-Fi Alliance annual meeting Tuesday the 5.9 and 6 GHz bands offer the best hope for more spectrum for Wi-Fi. The 6 GHz band will offer the wide channel sizes important to the new standard, Wi-Fi 6, O’Rielly said. “Where 5.9 GHz would provide a nice new slice for unlicensed use, 6 GHz provides a whopping 1.2 gigahertz of spectrum.” Making the 6 GHz band available for Wi-Fi won't be easy, he said: “The FCC fully recognizes that incumbents must be protected. At the same time, any such protections must be reasonable. We no longer have the luxury of over-protecting incumbents via technical rules, enormous guard bands, or super-sized protection zones. Every megahertz must be used as efficiently as possible.” O’Rielly’s speech follows comments Monday at New America (see 1906030069 or 1906040021).

The U.K. and the U.S. will agree on the best approach to Huawei, President Donald Trump said Tuesday at a news conference after meeting with British Prime Minister Theresa May. Experts say the U.S. will get limited support from other countries for its campaign against the Chinese equipment maker (see 1905290036). “We’re going to have absolutely an agreement on Huawei and everything else,” Trump said: “We have an incredible intelligence relationship and we will be able to work out any differences.” He says sanctions against Huawei could be part of trade negotiations with China (see 1905240038). Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned European nations on Huawei. “Those comments would appear to undermine the arguments that Secretary Pompeo has been making about Huawei,” Zack Cooper, China expert at the American Enterprise Institute, told us. “This is reminiscent of the tough stance that the Trump administration took against ZTE, only to see the pressure taken off by the president. I think many observers will expect a similar dynamic to occur on Huawei, if a U.S.-China trade deal is eventually negotiated."

CTIA applauds the FCC for wrapping up the world’s first high-band auction on Tuesday (see 1905280063), said Scott Bergmann, senior vice president-regulatory affairs. “We’re now one step closer to securing our nation’s 5G leadership,” he said Wednesday. “The 24 and 28 GHz bands will play a critical role in U.S. 5G deployments, and the conclusion of these auctions is an important milestone in the FCC’s 5GFast plan.”

Intel seeks "expeditious completion of rules to enable licensed terrestrial mobile use" in the C band and "unlicensed shared use of the 5.925-7.125 GHz band." Senior Vice President, Network Platforms Group Sandra Rivera, Vice President-Next Generation and Standards Group Asha Keddy and other executives discussed that and the importance of mid-band spectrum for 5G on Wednesday with Commissioner Rosenworcel. That's according to a filing posted Monday in docket 18-295. Commissioner Mike O'Rielly said Saturday that he would be OK with freeing up 200 MHz in the C band initially (see 1905200006).

ZTE said Friday it launched its first cybersecurity lab in Nanjing, China. “ZTE is devoted to deploying multiple cybersecurity labs across the globe” with others to come in Italy and Belgium “in the near future,” the Chinese equipment maker said: “With the vision of ‘Security in DNA, Trust through Transparency,’ ZTE is committed to providing customers with end-to-end security products and services, and integrating security considerations and controls into every aspect of the product's life cycle.” The development comes as the Trump administration launches a clampdown on Chinese equipment makers, especially Huawei (see 1905150066).