Handsets with 5G functionality are expected to generate more than half of all smartphone industry revenue by 2025, rising to $337 billion from $108 billion in 2021, reported Juniper Research Monday. “Increasing the availability of lower-tier 5G smartphones is crucial to propagate 5G handset adoption in emerging markets,” it said. It’s pegging global Android smartphone pricing to be 65% lower than that of iOS by 2025, but “the enduring popularity of iOS devices in developed markets will make 40% of global 5G smartphone revenue attributable to North America and Europe.” It warned that right-to-repair legislation may impede 5G smartphone industry revenue growth “as more handset users choose to repair older models rather than upgrading.”

Juniper Research forecast Tuesday that the total number of 5G connections will hit 3.2 billion by 2026, up from 310 million this year. Juniper predicted increasing investments in stand-alone 5G networks, which “leverage next-generation technologies, such as network orchestration tools, to enable operators to monetize data‑intensive use cases, like remote healthcare and mobile gaming.” By 2026, the average revenue per 5G smartphone connection will decline to $17 worldwide, from $29 this year, “significantly impacting operator revenue,” Juniper said. The Asia Pacific region will have 60% of the 5G connections, it said: “Operators in China, Japan and South Korea have all implemented lower subscription costs, which have accelerated 5G adoption, thus enabling these subscribers to explore novel services that require 5G connectivity.”

Qualcomm representatives spoke with aides to FCC Commissioner Geoffrey Starks about the company’s push for sharing the 37 GHz band (see 2104280038), said a Wednesday filing in docket 14-177. “The simple rule" Qualcomm proposes "would allow multiple licensees, each using any air interface, to share on a licensed basis the entire 600 MHz wide Lower 37 GHz band in the same location, on the same frequencies, and at the same time, by taking advantage of the highly directional nature of millimeter wave communications.”

Global 5G network infrastructure revenue is on pace to top $19.1 billion in 2021, up 39% from 2020, reported Gartner Wednesday. Communications service providers in mature markets accelerated 5G development in 2020-21, with 5G generating 39% of wireless infrastructure revenue this year. “The COVID-19 pandemic spiked demand for optimized and ultrafast broadband connectivity to support work-from-home and bandwidth-hungry applications,” said analyst Michael Porowski. Of segments comprising wireless infrastructure in Gartner’s forecast, 5G is “the only significant opportunity,” said the company. “Investment in legacy wireless generations is rapidly deteriorating.”

Open radio access networks will help providers cut energy costs, the Open RAN Policy Coalition said. “Open RAN enables rapid rollout of efficiency measures across the RAN supply chain.” Electricity costs are 20%-40% of cellsite operating costs, “the majority of which is consumed by the RAN and power amplifiers,” Monday's report said: “Modularized components and open interfaces, combined with innovations in virtualization technologies, will allow telecommunications operators to unlock cloud efficiencies.”

Revenue from Tower Semiconductor sales of RF silicon-on-insulator smartphone components increased 40% year over year in Q2 on surging consumer demand for 5G handsets, said CEO Russell Ellwanger on an earnings call Monday. Shipments of 5G smartphones are expected to double this year compared with 2020, reaching 550 million handsets globally out of a total of about 1.3 billion, he said. “This shift, combined with the high content increase of 5G and our strong position in this market, fuels our continued growth,” he said. “The shift to more advanced and higher-value 5G technology is helping increase the average selling prices in this segment. This trend is expected to continue for at least the next several quarters.”

MediaTek’s mobile phone business was 57% of Q2 revenue and grew 143% year over year mainly through increasing adoption of its 5G high-end SoCs “among our customer base,” said CEO Rick Tsai on a quarterly call Tuesday. The first high-end smartphone model built on MediaTek’s 5G “open resource architecture” is shipping, said Tsai: “More models for multiple customers will come in the next few months.” MediaTek is standing by projections that 5G smartphone shipments will exceed 500 million units globally this year, more than double the 2020 volume, he said: “We expect the 5G migration to accelerate and penetrate into more regions next year.” Also Tuesday, Corning CEO Wendell Weeks said 5G subscriptions are nearly 300 million, “on track to double that by the end of 2021” (see separate report in this issue).

Dell’Oro Group dialed down a near-term forecast for citizens broadband radio service investments in 5G deployments Tuesday, projecting $500 million to $1 billion in 2020-25. The adjustments “reflect slower than expected year-to-date LTE CBRS base station adoption,” said Vice President Stefan Pongratz: But “activity is on the rise with interesting use cases forming around multiple verticals, adding confidence enterprise and private deployments will comprise a greater share of the overall CBRS market over time.”

T-Mobile’s “Extended Range 5G,” which uses 600 MHz, covers 305 million U.S. people, President-Technology Neville Ray blogged Tuesday. “Ultra Capacity 5G” covers 165 million, Ray said. “We are moving at pace and with confidence towards our 200 million people covered and NATIONWIDE Ultra Capacity for the end of this year.” T-Mobile’s average 2.5 GHz deployment is 60-80 MHz, expected to grow to 100 MHz this year, he said.

The 10-year Dish Network/AT&T network service agreement (see 2107190003) "is a game changer for Dish and a disastrous result for the wireless incumbents," practically assuring viability for Dish's wireless plans and upping the odds of a strategic partnership and future financing, MoffettNathanson's Craig Moffett wrote investors Monday. The mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) agreement now extending well past expiration of the 2026 no-sale prohibition opens the door to a possible sale of Dish's spectrum or its entire business, he said. The AT&T agreement buys Dish breathing room to expand its network beyond the 70% of the U.S. population it has to cover by 2025 by eliminating the danger it faced with its T-Mobile MVNO expiring in 2027, and it raises the chances of Dish to be competitive to the Big Three wireless carriers, Moffett said.