Rebecca Day

Pivotal Research Group repeated a “sell” rating on Netflix's stock despite some analyst optimism (see 2210050031) over the streaming company’s upcoming ad-supported tier and anticipated resulting average revenue per user (ARPU) growth. Pivotal's view remains unchanged as "we see the move to offer an ad supported tier by the global streaming incumbent player as defensive not offensive” and “fraught” with risks to ARPU, technology and product perception, analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak wrote investors Tuesday. An ad-supported tier won’t likely allow Netflix to return to annual subscriber growth, with Netflix nearly fully penetrated at about 80% of the U.S., counting piracy, Wlodarczak said. Pivotal sees a “significant ARPU risk of existing households churning down” to a “less attractive ad supported service” while making Netflix “dramatically more reliant on variable advertising spend." That could put ARPU at risk if advertising is lower than expected due to an “increasingly likely ’23 recession.” That Netflix’s peers are also moving to ad-supported offerings creates the potential for “too much inventory,” he added. An ad-supported version “taints the [Netflix] brand,” Wlodarczak said, saying the technology behind successful advertising delivery is difficult; Netflix’s original programming isn’t optimized for ad breaks, he said. An “underappreciated risk” is that Netflix management believes it can moderate content cost growth “when virtually all of their peers are accelerating investment in content particularly on exclusive sports rights which could ultimately hit NFLX subscriber growth or push the company to reaccelerate content investment spend,” Wlodarczak said. Netflix reports Q3 earnings Oct. 18.

Discounts will hit record highs for electronics, computers and toys this holiday sales season, Adobe said Monday in its 2022 online holiday shopping forecast. The analytics firm expects electronics to drive $49.8 billion of online spending, up 2.9% year on year: “Heavy discounts will impact margins and spending but attract enough shoppers to maintain growth.”

CTA expects CES 2023 Jan. 5-8 at the Las Vegas Convention Center to be the largest in-person, audited business event to take place in the U.S. since early 2020, it said Thursday. CTA has an attendance goal of 100,000, far lower than the pre-pandemic 171,268 posted from CES 2020 but well above the 40,000-plus (see 2201100001) at CES 2022. The show was canceled in 2021 due to COVID-19.

October promotions from Amazon and Target will “jump-start the holiday shopping season and boost the lagging fall season,” blogged NPD analyst Marshal Cohen Thursday. Target’s Deal Days (see 2210030007) already came and went, with the three-day sale event ending Saturday; Amazon’s Prime Early Access sale runs Tuesday-Wednesday.

Amazon continued tweeting troubleshooting steps to viewers complaining of poor quality streaming on Thursday Night Football during the Indianapolis Colts-Denver Broncos NFL game in Week 5. It was the fourth exclusive TNF broadcast for Amazon Prime Video, after its week two debut Sept. 15. Viewers complained of issues with delay, resolution, frame rate, audio and streaming artifacts.

Google highlighted advanced Pixel camera features, the first Pixel smartwatch -- integrating Google and Fitbit technologies -- and a unified Pixel ecosystem design theme on the company’s hybrid in-person, virtual Made by Google launch event from Brooklyn, New York, Thursday.

Cowen expects Netflix to report 1 million paid net subscriber additions, in line with company guidance, when it reports Q3 earnings Oct. 18, analyst John Blackledge wrote investors Wednesday. Guidance reflects macroeconomic and near-term challenges, said the analyst, saying investors are “looking ahead to the ad tier rollout” and password-sharing solution, which could be implemented as early as November.

As job starts fall and prices continue to rise, retailers are scrambling to put programs in place to secure customer loyalty in what's shaping up to be a challenging holiday sales season. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday a 1.1-million drop in job openings to 10.1 million for August, while inflation continues to tick higher.

After several delays, the Connectivity Standards Alliance released the Matter 1.0 specification and certification Tuesday, with the backing of over 550 technology companies throwing support behind open IoT standards, the alliance said.

Target previewed deals that will go live beginning Thursday when it marks the early start of the holiday shopping season with its three-day Deal Days (see 2209220013) promotion. Customers can get electronics, video games, toys and household items at up to 50% off, Target said Monday.