US Elections Could Alter Direction of Transatlantic Export Controls, Report Says

The Nov. 5 presidential election could have a significant impact on how the U.S. works with the EU to develop export controls for China, according to a new report released last week by the Washington, D.C.-based American-German Institute.

If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, she likely will continue the Biden administration’s “methodical diplomacy with the EU and remain sensitive to the bloc’s opposition to decoupling as an official characterization of economic policy toward China,” the report says. She would likely focus on building consensus on specific technologies, including artificial intelligence, biotechnology and quantum.

While Harris would have few carrots to offer the EU in return for its export control alignment, she could push to renew or reinvent the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council, which enjoys broad transatlantic support for its role in coordinating trade and technology policy (see 2404040034). Although major free trade deals would face political resistance in Washington, Harris could offer limited trade deals or exemptions from certain export restrictions, such as the foreign-produced direct product rule.

If former President Donald Trump wins in November, it is unclear if his administration would be as “willing to invest as heavily” in relationships with the EU as the Biden administration has, the report says.

A second Trump administration likely would push for expanding and tightening controls on technology exports to China and might be more willing to do so unilaterally instead of waiting for allied consensus. It also might seek bilateral export control agreements with individual European countries, such as France and Germany.

If Trump sanctions Chinese national champions like electric vehicle battery producer Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd. (CATL), as some Republican lawmakers have proposed (see 2408280050), he could disrupt global supply chains, severely harming transatlantic relations, the report contends.

The report, “Transatlantic Export Control Cooperation beyond 2024,” was written by Tobias Gehrke, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, and Yixiang Xu, China fellow and geoeconomics program officer at the American-German Institute.