China’s New Export Controls on Antimony to Squeeze Supply, Lift Prices, Think Tank Says

China’s recently announced export restrictions on antimony (see 2408150022) are expected to cause supplies of the critical mineral to tighten and prices to rise sharply, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Aug. 20.

With China accounting for 48% of global antimony production and 63% of U.S. antimony imports, the U.S. may have to help other countries, such as Australia and Tajikistan, increase their output to ensure it continues to receive sufficient amounts of antimony, which is used in ammunition and other military equipment as well as commercial products, CSIS said. Efforts to resume domestic mining of antimony are at least several years away.

“The United States will need to look to alternative antimony sources to mitigate antimony export restrictions and potential disruptions as soon as possible,” CSIS said. The "U.S. defense industry may need to rely on diversified sourcing of antimony from several smaller producers to meet demand over the next several months."

Antimony prices “have already doubled since the start of the year, reaching an all-time high of $22,000 per metric ton,” as China has been cutting its antimony exports for years to support increased domestic consumption, CSIS said. “Some experts predict that prices could reach as high as $30,000 per metric ton as buyers stockpile and secure supply for future production.”

The new controls will require exporters to obtain a license from China's Commerce Ministry before they can ship antimony abroad. While it is unclear to what extent China will block exports, it appears the ministry might oppose shipments that could be used for weapons, CSIS noted.