Analyst Says 'Perfect Storm' Caused Viasat's U.S. Broadband Slide

Viasat ended its FY 2025 Q1 with 257,000 U.S. broadband subscribers, the company said as it announced earnings Wednesday. The number marked a notable drop from the 603,000 it had in 2020 -- the last time it reported that number, space consultant Tim Farrar posted Wednesday on X. "Between the emergence of Starlink, Viasat's delays with bringing new capacity online, and the 90% failure of ViaSat-3 F1 due to a botched antenna, this really was a perfect storm that sent consumer broadband subscribers packing," Quilty Space analyst Caleb Henry posted on X. Viasat said it ended the quarter with 3,750 connected aircraft customers, up 16% year over year, and a contracted backlog of another 1,460. In an earnings call with analysts, CEO Mark Dankberg said Viasat expects it will have 4,200 connected aircraft in service by the end of the fiscal year. Asked about the company's aims in direct-to-device service, Dankberg said it already supports emergency location and signaling devices and similar chips will be rolling out soon in handsets. President Guru Gowrappan said Viasat expects FY 2025 revenue will be flat compared with FY 2024's $4.5 billion and would have been up a handful of percentage points if not for the expected decline in U.S. fixed broadband associated with the ViaSat-3 F1 antenna anomaly. Viasat announced this week that the satellite began offering commercial service (see 2408050002). Dankberg said the company expects it can access about 10% of the satellite's capacity. He said when the other two ViasSat-3 satellites are launched, they will deploy to cover the Americas and East Asia and the impaired one will move to cover the Middle East and Africa. William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma wrote Thursday that while aviation and government customer revenue remains strong, SpaceX's Starlink is pressuring Viasat in residential and maritime.