Assistant USTR Says AGOA Renewal Unlikely in 2024

African journalists asked Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Africa Constance Hamilton and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of African Affairs Joy Basu if their countries would stay in or return to the African Growth and Opportunity Act.

The press conference, hosted July 29 by the State Department's African Media Hub after the AGOA Forum in Washington, spent most of the time on anxieties about the timing of renewal, and products or countries that either can't participate or are fearful they will be ousted.

An Ethiopian reporter asked what Ethiopia can do to return to eligibility, and what are the chances it can return in 2026.

Hamilton replied: "We don't make countries guess as to what they have to do to get back into AGOA. We have been very specific with the government of Ethiopia."

The women said the government is reviewing information from the Ethiopian government on actions it has taken to deal with unrest, as well as information from other sources. Several witnesses at an eligibility review hearing said Ethiopia is violating the human rights of Tigrayans or Amhara people (see 2406280027). The AGOA Biennial Report, published by USTR June 28, suggested that the opponents of restoring Ethiopia to the AGOA would have a receptive audience in the administration. The report said: "There are continued credible reports of human rights violations and abuses in Ethiopia, which include extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrest or detention, torture, and conflict-related sexual violence. Serious restrictions on freedom of expression and media freedom and substantial interference with the freedom of peaceful assembly and association are also cause for concern."

Basu said not only is it clear what governments should do to restore eligibility, "it's also not a surprise when countries are removed. There's a lot of letters that go out in advance. The legislation is quite clear with what some of the bright lines are."

Inside U.S. Trade noted that some eligible countries have cross-border supply chains that include countries that are not currently eligible, and asked what the administration might do to handle that problem. Hamilton reiterated that it's the ineligible countries' responsibility to make changes, not the U.S.

"We are very engaged in countries that are in trouble," she said. "They have already been warned several times that they are crossing a line about remaining in the program. Because of the way the program is written, losing eligibility is almost inevitable."

An AGOA renewal bill that was introduced in the Senate would change that, so that violations of eligibility could lead to partial removal, a warning letter, or even no action.

A South African journalist asked the women if South Africa is likely to remain in the program. Hamilton said it is "too early to predict what the outcome will be for any country," but said there was a very good bilateral meeting between U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and South Africa's trade minister last week.

Another South African journalist asked if AGOA is likely to be renewed in 2024. Hamilton noted it's fully in Congress's hands, but said it may be unlikely to happen in 2024. "I am very confident that it will happen before AGOA is set to expire in 2025," she said, and said she expects it will be in early 2025.

Basu noted that several AGOA renewal bills that have been introduced in Congress would renew the preference program for longer than 10 years, "which we would be happy to see."