Analyst Sees Starlink and Kuiper Potentially Driving Competitors to New Business Models

Given the vast amount of capacity SpaceX's Starlink is bringing online and its moves into new markets, along with expectations that Amazon's Kuiper will take a similar approach, satellite incumbents and new entrants face reduced opportunities, Analysys Mason's Christopher Baugh blogged Tuesday. Starlink is moving into markets including military, mobility and backhaul, he said. It offers more than 102 Tbps of capacity today and Kuiper is expected to deliver more than 117 when fully deployed, Baugh said. Contrast that with worldwide high-throughput satellite capacity of just 2.3 Tbps in 2019, he noted. Yet neither constellation will have enough bandwidth to cover the total addressable market, Baugh said. Within three to five years, Kuiper's launch of full commercial service will force connectivity prices further downward. Moreover, pricing pressure and churn across their customer base will challenge most operators. The "plan B" for those competitors could include consolidation, multi-orbit strategies or new verticals such as earth observation.