Trade Wonks Wondering If Harris Will Be More Pro-Trade Than Biden

Vice President Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, has said that former President Donald Trump's tariff policy was a "trade tax that has resulted in American families spending as much as $1.4 billion more on everything from shampoo to washing machines."

However, given that President Joe Biden also criticized Trump's tariffs during the campaign, but extended safeguard tariffs and retained sections 232 and 301 tariffs, it's not clear that Harris would pivot back to a pre-Trump-era approach on trade.

Todd Tucker, director of industrial policy and trade at the Roosevelt Institute, a left-of-center think tank, tweeted links to Harris speeches in 2022 and 2023 in which she praised the Inflation Reduction Act preferences for domestic production. At a Sheet Metal Workers union training facility in November 2022, Harris said, "So, as the workers here know, these investments will also create jobs. Jobs for electricians who do the residential wiring. Jobs for laborers who install energy-efficient windows and doors. Jobs for sheet metal workers who build and install electric heat pumps. Jobs for union workers who will be trained right here in this building.

"And in addition to lowering costs and creating jobs, this investment will also help us fight the climate crisis.

"By helping families pay the upfront cost for energy efficiency upgrades to their homes, we are also lowering energy bills, bringing down household costs, creating jobs, and fighting the climate crisis. It’s all connected."

Simon Lester, a former libertarian think tank trade wonk and head of World Trade Law Net, reacted to Tucker's comments, writing, "Kamala has been forceful on climate change -- said she voted against USMCA due to [the] absence of climate change provision. What will be interesting is if she shifts the balance the Biden administration has struck, emphasizing carbon emissions reductions over economic nationalism."

In 2020, when Lester was still at the Cato Institute, he blogged about Harris's trade comments and positions, quoting her from a September 2019 debate, when she said, "I am not a protectionist Democrat. Look, we need to sell our stuff. And that means we need to sell it to people overseas. That means we need trade policies that allow that to happen."

He wondered if she would be open to free trade agreement negotiations as long as they had high environmental standards. (In her statement on why she voted no on USMCA, she said labor and civil society groups will always have a seat at the table when trade negotiations are opened, so that trade agreements will improve the environment and have workers' best interests at heart.)

"And I think that’s exactly what we need -- pro-labor, pro-environment trade deals -- because it’s clear Donald Trump’s protectionist approach has been a disaster. His trade war is crushing American farmers, killing American jobs, and punishing American consumers. I would work with our allies in Europe and Asia to confront China on its troubling trade practices, not perpetuate Trump’s failing tariff war that is being paid for by hard-working Americans," she said then.

Last week, at a campaign event, Harris attacked Trump's proposal of a universal 10% tariff. "On the issue of the cost of living, Donald Trump says he will implement a 10 % tariff on all imported goods," she said. "Well, understand: Independent economists agree his tariffs would increase the cost of everyday expenses for families -- the cost of gas, groceries, and clothing."

Middlebury College Professor Gary Winslet responded to Lester's reposting of his blog, saying, "I think that under a hypothetical Harris administration there's a potential opening for an Environmental Goods Agreement and generally for freer trade in green goods, particularly with allies."

Lester said that's possible, and that it's time for folks to make the case for it. An EGA in the World Trade Organization has had bipartisan support (see 2212140036 and 2311090020).