Trump Should Prioritize Business Certainty Under Possible Second Term, Expert Says

If Donald Trump is elected to a second presidential term, his administration should focus on communicating better with other governments and American companies about upcoming policy decisions, said Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative.

Braw, speaking during an event this week hosted by the think tank, said businesses “always want things to be predictable,” and “governments want predictability too.” But many initiatives, including trade measures, were rolled out during the Trump administration without much warning, which “is I think what caused a lot of heart palpitations, heartburn, all those unpleasant things.” Braw said.

She noted that Trump managed to secure “agreements” with other countries that “something needed to be done” to counter China, but then the administration would take unilateral steps that would alienate trading partners. “We got things like the tariffs on America's closest allies, and that seemed to make no sense,” Braw said. “In fact, it caused a lot of offense.”

Braw said much of the business uncertainty under the Trump administration stemmed from a “communication” issue. Actions that “may offend or harm allies” should be “explained why they are considered necessary,” she said. “And if that's not done, then steps that may be positive will be lost in the public debate.”

Braw also briefly touched on the Australia-U.K.-U.S. (AUKUS) agreement, which is expected to reduce restrictions on defense trade among the three nations and deliver nuclear powered submarines to Australia. She said she expects countries to pursue similar small-group partnerships to manage pressing issues rather than turn to larger forums, such as NATO.

“We have reached the point where NATO has a lot of members -- many more than anybody had ever expected. But it also makes it a slightly unwieldy alliance, because everybody has to agree to whatever it is that the alliance is expected to do,” she said. “So I think whether we like it or not, it's natural that we'll see more informal and even formal groupings emerge among the existing member states and even non-member states.”