FAA Projects Up to 1 Starlink Death Every Other Year From Debris Possible

By 2035, someone might be killed or injured every other year by falling debris from SpaceX's Starlink satellites, the FAA said last week in a congressionally mandated study of the reentry risks posed by low earth orbit (LEO) megaconstellations. The FAA said that estimate comes from projections of Starlink's constellation growth size, and the 28,000 fragments expected to survive reentry each year. "If SpaceX is correct in reporting zero surviving debris ... the rise in reentry risk is minimal over the current risk," it said. The report focused on Starlink because of an Aerospace Corp. technical study indicating more than 85% of the expected risk to people on the ground and aviation in 2035 is projected to come from that particularly large constellation, the agency said. To have regulatory oversight of LEO reentry issues, the agency could pursue a rulemaking to amend its payload review process, the study said. But the FAA wouldn't go that route if the FCC or Commerce started regulating debris impacts from reentering satellite constellations, it said. The FAA said its regulatory reach is also limited since its authority doesn't cover payloads launched outside the U.S. by noncitizens or entities not organized in the U.S.