Wassenaar Seeing Sharp Drop in Consensus Post Russian Invasion of Ukraine

LONDON -- Gyorgy Molnar, head of the multilateral Wassenaar Arrangement secretariat, said he is “cautiously optimistic” the regime will be able to agree to more export control proposals this year as opposed to the prior year. Molnar didn’t specifically name Russia but said a “number” of proposals last year “were blocked by one participating state.”

Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, participating Wassenaar members agreed on about 70% of proposals, he said, but last year that number dropped to about 30%. Molnar said he’s “not as optimistic” that Wassenaar can get back to 70% agreement this year, “but hopefully we can do much better.”

Current and former U.S. officials have voiced support for a new multilateral regime (see 2206290032, 2302080034 and 2307250015), especially because Russia, a participating member, can block proposals.

Molnar, speaking Sept. 27 during a defense industry conference in London hosted by SAE Media, said the group “cannot push all the blame on one country,” adding that multiple countries blocked a range of proposals during last year’s meetings. And although some lower-level meetings featured “heated discussions” when the issue of Ukraine came up, those tense discussions didn’t last long, “and then we were able to move on and have meaningful conversation regarding the technical issues.”

If one participating country, such as Russia, continues to block proposals for political reasons, Molnar said, countries should combine their proposals, which he noted is already happening. “And if that trend continues, it makes each and every participating state, especially the one you're speaking about, it puts them in a more difficult position if they attempt to block every single one for political reasons.

“So I can only encourage like-minded countries to get together and try to come up with a common position” on their proposals, he said.