Wireless Earnings Season Gets Off to Rocky Start

With earnings season getting underway and the major wireless carriers set to report results starting with Verizon July 25, AT&T was down 4.10% Friday to $14.50/share after J.P. Morgan analyst Philip Cusick downgraded the company. "Based on recent commentary from management lowering estimates for wireless (in May and again in June) and broadband (in June), we believe AT&T is facing marginally more pressure in Mobility (from Verizon, T-Mobile, and cable) and Consumer Wireline (from cable, [fixed wireless access]) as well as ongoing pressures in Business Wireline," Cusick told investors. He predicted AT&T will grow its postpaid subscriber base by 2.5% this year, compared with 4.7% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. Cusick lowered his rating on AT&T to neutral from overweight and cut his per-share price target to $17 from $22. AT&T Chief Financial Officer Pascal Desroches warned last month the carrier expects net postpaid phone adds in the 300,000 range this quarter, compared with 424,000 in Q1 (see 2306200026). Meanwhile, Finland's Nokia cut its annual outlook Friday, and Sweden’s Ericsson reported lower quarterly profits due to a slowdown in consumer spending. Nokia now projects $26 billion-$27.6 billion in sales this year, down from $27.6 billion-$29.4 billion. “The weaker demand outlook in the second half is due to both the macro-economic environment and customers’ inventory digestion,” Nokia said: “Customer spending plans are increasingly impacted by high inflation and rising interest rates along with some projects now slipping to 2024 -- notably in North America. There is also inventory normalization happening at customers after the supply chain challenges of the past two years.” Ericsson reported overall sales dropped 9% year-over-year as it lost $67.2 million, primarily due to restructuring charges. The company cited a “sharp decline in sales in North America … partly offset by strong sales" in India, which is now deploying 5G. “As we've said before, 2023 is a choppy year and Q2 developed much in line with our expectations and what we have said to the market,” CEO Borje Ekholm told analysts. India “continued its strong development and network rollout, and by delivering a record build-out, we now have the leading market share” there, he said: “As expected, we saw a softening in other markets, primarily front-running 5G markets and that includes, of course, North America.” Ekholm noted world data traffic continues to grow. “In addition, we see that 3/4ths of all base station sites outside of China are not yet updated with 5G mid-band, so this, in combination with the migration to 5G stand-alone, will basically continue to drive the need for investments in 5G networks,” he said. Ericsson expects a “gradual recovery” in late 2023, with improvements next year.