Export Controls Haven't Hampered Chinese Space, Missile Tech, Expert Says

China has become a “world leader” in space and missile technologies despite “far-reaching” U.S. export controls, said Kevin Pollpeter, a senior research scientist at the Center for Naval Analysis. Pollpeter, speaking during a U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing last week, said China’s space and missile programs are “not only closing the gap with the United States, but are also increasingly innovative.” He noted that the director of national intelligence recently warned that China could reach “world-class status” in most space technology areas by 2030.

Part of China’s progress has been due to ineffective U.S. export controls, Pollpeter said. He said U.S. restrictions have been “limited by the willingness of other states to share technology with China and the porousness of U.S export control enforcement.” He specifically said China has been successful in illegally skirting U.S. export controls to acquire foreign space technologies.

The U.S. may face more export enforcement challenges in this sector as China’s space industry grows, Pollpeter said. “The expansion of the [People’s Republic of China’s] commercial space industry increases the number of PRC actors who may try to acquire export controlled items,” he said, “and may make monitoring and enforcement of export controls increasingly difficult.”

Pollpeter said the U.S. can try to limit China’s progress by “properly” funding export control agencies and better coordinating restrictions with allies. The U.S. also can try to “keep ahead” of China by better promoting basic research “necessary to fund our missile and space programs."

But, Pollpeter said, China is “not going to stop advancing” in this industry and said he isn’t optimistic much can be done. “They've come so far so fast," he said, "that I'm afraid that any major reform of export controls would probably not stop China from advancing.”