Trade Analyst Doesn't Expect Much Difference in Biden's Trade Policy Post-Midterms

Simon Lester, president of China Trade Monitor and WorldTradeLaw.net, said he doesn't expect any large changes in the Biden administration's trade policy following the midterm elections. In a blog post Nov. 15, Lester wrote that while the administration could look at the election results as not provoking too much of a backlash to its trade policy, it's more likely that the election cycle was favorable to Democrats, due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision and "terrible" GOP candidates.

"I don't expect them to make big changes in trade policy," Lester said. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council, "etc. will go forward; the Section 301 tariffs will be reviewed as required by statute, but there will be no big changes to the U.S.-China trade relationship; and [World Trade Organization] reform will meander along."

Lester similarly doesn't expect a big swing in trade policy in Congress. Retiring Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., "was a strong free trader," but given the similarities of Democrat John Fetterman, who won the election, and his challenger, Republican Mehmet Oz, on trade, Lester said he suspected for some time that there "wasn't going to be much of a voting difference." With Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, also retiring, Lester also doesn't see much of a difference between Republican J.D. Vance, the ultimate victor, and Democrat Tim Ryan on trade. However, Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., triumphing over his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, "is fortunate for trade," Lester said. In Georgia, where incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock faces a run-off against Republican Herschel Walker, Warnock "would probably be more pro-trade," Lester said in the post.