PRG Raises Netflix to a 'Buy' on Expected Conversion of 'Pirates'

Pivotal Research Group raised Netflix to a “buy” from “sell,” analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak wrote investors Wednesday. PRG increased its subscriber forecast from 5.5 million to 15 million on what it believes will be a successful conversion of “effective pirates” to paying subscribers, plus short-term subscriber benefits of launching its ad-supported service next week. Wlodarczak is concerned about “consumer churn” down to $7 ad-supported tiers, “particularly in a recession,” though that isn’t likely to be an issue until second-half 2023, he said. The analyst views competitor price hikes as “fundamentally positive.” Despite growing competition in the streaming video space, Netflix “provides the most unique and powerful streaming experience globally” and has the opportunity to accelerate subscriber growth over the next year, he said. Wlodarczak expects co-CEO Reed Hastings to “look to sell” the streaming service as early as 2024.