Samsung Driving Foldable Unit Rise, but Price Limits Broad Uptake: IDC

Worldwide shipments of foldable phones, including flip- and fold-style form factors, will reach 13.5 million this year, a 67% year-on-year increase due to Samsung’s success with the Flip and Fold products, said IDC Monday. The research firm projects foldable phone shipments will reach 41.5 million units in 2026 at a compound annual growth rate of 38.7%. IDC expects Samsung’s recently updated Flip and Fold models (see 2208100035) to outperform the previous versions “and grab more consumer attention in the category.” Samsung “continues to be the gold standard for foldable devices in the market," said analyst Anthony Scarsella, noting the 2022 models’ “incremental but critical improvements over their predecessors.” The success of the latest models “should be a strong indicator of how foldables will evolve and capture consumers moving forward,” he said. Price remains a “pain point” for consumers, but Samsung’s $999 starting price may be accepted by many consumers amid an overall increase in consumer goods pricing due to inflation, Scarsella said. Analyst Nabila Popal doesn’t believe foldables will become mainstream near term, saying: “Mainstream means volume, and volume is dominated by cheaper, sub-$400 phones.” She cautioned vendors not to undercut the segment with low-cost foldable phones to generate an early sales boost, especially if such a strategy compromised quality and user experience. Vendors should focus on improving user experience and boosting confidence in the foldable category to generate long-term growth, Popal said, calling foldables “the future of premium Android devices.” Foldables have potential in the commercial segment where they can function as two-in-one devices replacing separate phones and tablets, a concept that may gain traction as prices continue to fall and new business cases emerge, IDC said. The 13.5 million foldable phones projected to ship this year will be a 1.1% share of the overall mobile phone market; the research firm expects 1.4 billion smartphones to ship in 2022.