Sped-Up Deorbiting Order Seen Getting 4-0 Approval; Other Nations Should Follow

The FCC's orbital debris draft order on Thursday's agenda (see 2209080057) is expected to pass 4-0, though some tweaks are possible to the draft's language on waivers for its requirement that satellites in low earth orbit be disposed of via re-entry within five years of the end of mission, an agency official told us. Space regulatory experts said other regulators around the globe are likely to mirror the commission in reducing the post-mission time frame for de-orbiting from 25 years to five.

Other nations "will quickly follow suit," LeoLabs' Darren McKnight said. He said the Orbital Sustainability Act introduced this month by Senate Commerce Space Subcommittee Chairman John Hickenlooper, D-Colo., and ranking member Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo. (see 2209140062) could be as significant as the draft order in driving new international norms. "The U.S. is always going to be seen as a leader" in orbital debris issues, said EchoStar Senior Vice President-Regulatory Affairs Jennifer Manner.

European states are more likely to follow through with similar deorbit rules since U.S. and European policies have been relatively in line, said Michael Dodge, University of North Dakota space studies associate professor. Whether space-faring nations like Russia or China do is less clear, he said. They have expressed interest in orbital clutter issues at least through international mitigation guidelines, though those aren't legally binding, he said.

Satellites already in orbit would be exempt from the five-year requirement, and the FCC would give a grandfathering period of two years for satellites authorized but not yet launched to incorporate the five-year disposal requirement into their mission objectives, per the draft order. New licensees and existing applicants putting up satellites after Sept. 29, 2024, would have to comply with the five-year requirement, the draft said, saying it would consider waivers for more time with existing authorizations that go beyond that two-year period.

Numerous space operators backed the five-year rule, while seeking some modifications to the terms (see 2209200041). Kepler in a docket 18-313 filing Friday said the five-year disposal proposal has "commendable intentions," but the agency needs to provide more clarity about what constitutes the end of mission and detail solutions for operators who can't meet the timeline due to circumstances beyond their control. HawkEye 360, Planet Labs and Spire urged the commission to clarify how the post-mission disposal reliability is to be calculated, to require that operators file a notification or certification of compliance rather than a modification application when certifying compliance with the new disposal rule, and to ax language on the need for a specific rule for larger constellations when the commission hasn't considered that rule yet.

The five-year requirement was likely one of the more achievable parts of the orbital debris Further NPRM adopted in 2020 (see 2004230040), with other provisions floated in it such as indemnification or mandatory maneuverability being far more contentious, space regulatory experts said. Dodge said the draft order seems to indicate it's "just the first salvo," with further FCC action coming on orbital debris. The draft order says in a footnote other topics from the Further NPRM, "such as maneuverability, accidental explosion risk, and collision risks associated with large constellations, will be addressed at a later date."

Space debris experts told us the five-year deorbit itself is a minor improvement to space sustainability, but it's a good interim measure since the FCC is likely to revisit the issue and time frame in the near future. In the draft order, the agency said it agrees "large constellations impose specific risks to the orbital environment that may be mitigated by a shorter post-mission orbital lifetime" and it "will continue to assess whether a shorter post-mission disposal requirement, such as one year, would be appropriate for large constellations." In the meantime, per the draft order, the agency "will continue evaluating large constellations consistent with the revised rules, including conditioning authorizations as appropriate to address collision risk and post-mission disposal matters on a case-by-case basis."

LeoLabs' McKnight called the five-year requirement "an important but baby step." It's "a positive yet relatively minimal development," echoed Dodge. Most major constellation operators already deorbit unused satellites before then and have collision avoidance capabilities exceeding government guidelines, McKnight said. With electric thruster technology making a one-year deorbit without much additional mass being added to a satellite feasible, that shorter requirement ultimately would make more sense, he said: "We will get there."