Holiday Season Spend Seen Rising, With Deal-Hunting: Mastercard

Mastercard's SpendingPulse program is forecasting a 7.1% year-over-year holiday season retail sales increase (18.8% vs. 2019) for Nov. 1-Dec. 24, it said Monday. It predicted electronics sales will grow 3.5% year on year and 25.6% vs. 2019.

SpendingPulse measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment, said Mastercard. It is not adjusted for inflation.

New job creation, rising wages and savings should have “many consumers ready and able to spend,” said Michelle Meyer, U.S. chief economist, but consumers are still expected to be looking for ways to counter inflation by looking for deals or making trade-offs in their holiday budgets. “This holiday retail season is bound to be far more promotional than the last,” said Mastercard adviser Steve Sadove.

Easing supply chain issues, the shift in consumer spending trends and over-ordered inventory have left retailers in a challenging position ahead of the holidays, Sadove said: “Retailers that were able to clear past merchandise and accurately forecast inventory needs will be the best positioned for growth.”

Holiday shopping is expected to begin early again this year as consumers hunt for early deals, Mastercard said, while Black Friday weekend and Christmas Eve, a Saturday, are projected as the biggest days for retailers.

Mastercard expects in-store sales to grow 7.9% year on year, with e-commerce sales rising 4.2%. Retail sales grew 8.5% in the 2021 holiday season on “pent-up demand, excess savings and supply chain issues” that led many consumers to start shopping early, Mastercard noted. August retail sales, excluding automotive, were up 11.7% year on year, it said; electronics sales grew 4.3%.