IDC Downgrades June Forecast for 2022 PC Shipments by 4.6 Points

“Tumultuous times” loom this year and next for the PC and tablet industries due to worsening inflation, a weakening global economy and “the surge in buying over the past two years,” reported IDC Thursday. It forecast global shipments of “traditional” PCs, including desktops, notebooks and workstations, will decline 12.8% in 2022 to 305.3 million units, and tablet shipments will fall 6.8% to 156.8 million.

IDC’s latest PC forecast for 2022 downgraded its June 8 outlook by 4.6 points and generally mirrors the grim commentary on recent calls from the top three vendors Lenovo (see 2208100020), Dell (see 2208260002) and HP (see 2208310032). A common thread among the three was that the downturn in consumer PC demand was unexpected and abrupt, and that the consumer softness was beginning to leak into enterprise PC demand, as buying activity among commercial customers recently took a more cautious turn.

The combined market for PCs and tablets is expected to decline 10.8% this year to 462.1 million devices in consumer, enterprise, public sector and small and medium business channels, said IDC. “Further contraction is also expected in 2023 as consumer demand has slowed, the education demand has been largely fulfilled, and enterprise demand gets pushed out due to worsening macroeconomic conditions,” it said. It forecast the combined market for PCs and tablets will decline 2.6% in 2023 before returning to growth in 2024.

The long-term outlook is for PC and tablet shipments to rise at a 0.8% compound annual growth rate the next four years, reaching 477.7 million devices in 2026, said IDC. The consumer segment is projected to rise at a 0.4% CAGR to 269.3 million devices in 2026, while the enterprise sector will track a 2.5% CAGR, reaching 63.6 million units the same year.

Though demand is slowing from its peak during the 2020 and 2021 remote work and learning cycles during COVID-19, “the outlook for shipments remains above pre-pandemic levels," said IDC. "Long-term demand will be driven by a slow economic recovery combined with an enterprise hardware refresh as support for Windows 10 nears its end. Educational deployments and hybrid work are also expected to become a mainstay driving additional volumes."

With economic headwinds gaining speed and ferocity, IDC expects “worsening consumer sentiment to result in further consumer market contractions over the next six quarters," said IDC. Economic recovery in time for the next major refresh cycle “could propel some growth in the outer years of our forecast,” it said. “Though volumes won't hit pandemic peaks, we expect the consumer market to drive towards more premium ends of the market."