BTS Sales Growth Seen Slowing to Under 1% This Year: EMarketer

Retail back-to-school (BTS) spending will advance at less than a percentage point to $67.5 billion this year vs. 14% in 2021, said a Tuesday eMarketer report. E-commerce BTS spend will grow 6.8% to $28.2 billion vs. 10.2% growth last year, it said. For the year, U.S. e-commerce sales are expected to reach $1.05 trillion, up 9.4% from 2021, said the report. For the Cyber Five shopping days, eMarketer predicts Thanksgiving Day digital spending of $5.9 billion, $9.9 billion on Black Friday, $5.5 billion on Small Business Saturday, $5.2 billion on Cyber Sunday and $12.2 billion on Cyber Monday. Total retail sales are projected at $6.9 trillion for 2022 on a healthy job market, low unemployment and higher wages, said eMarketer. It forecasts mobile commerce sales will grow 13.6% to $689 billion for the year. Amazon had 37.8% of digital shoppers in 2021, spending $397.4 billion, followed by Walmart (6%, $66.5 billion), Apple (3.9%, $40.8 billion), eBay (3.5%, $36.7 billion), Target (2.1%, $22.1 billion), Home Depot (2.1%, $21.7 billion) and Best Buy (1.6%, $17.1 billion). Direct-to-consumer e-commerce sales for established brands will reach $117.5 billion this year, eMarketer said. Habits consumers built over the past years “have taken root,” and while eMarketer expects e-commerce to grow its share of overall retail sales this year, “we do anticipate growth to slow in some discretionary categories” including apparel, toys and hobbies, furniture and home furnishings. Some 238.1 million people in the U.S. 14 and older will browse or research products on the internet this year, and 90% of that group will buy something via digital means at least once in 2022, it said. About 65% of the population are mobile shoppers; the percentage will grow to 69% by 2026, it said.