PVG Raises Roku to 'Hold' From 'Sell' on More 'Reasonable' Stock Price

TV ad spending is likely better insulated against an overall slowing ad environment than social media apps, Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak wrote investors Friday, upgrading Roku from a “sell” to “hold” rating. Wlodarczak noted Snap’s recent “disappointing outlook (see 2205240006)," comparing the current macroeconomic environment to the late 1990s “when ad-based Internet companies massively benefited from large digital ad spend by profitless Internet companies, that disappeared quickly when investors suddenly pushed those companies to generate a profit.” Also, he said, a recession could accelerate the exodus from traditional pay TV to streaming. PRG’s previous sell rating was based on mixed Roku's Q4 subscriber results and guidance, its saturation in the U.S. streaming market, “too aggressive” revenue growth expectations and Charter and Comcast’s joint move into streaming aggregation (see 2204270057). “Nothing has really changed around our concerns here, offset partially by some signs of chip shortages alleviating,” he said -- adding Roku could benefit from Netflix’ upcoming ad-based plan -- but its $9 billion valuation at $80 a share is “reasonable,” said the analyst. Roku’s strategy to invest aggressively “is unloved by the market but is frankly prudent to try to raise the barriers to entry for existing/new players and attack a sizeable revenue opportunity,” he said: “It also exacerbates the risk that basically no one generates outsized returns if it forces everyone to follow suit.” The lower stock price creates “the potential for an outside player to make a bid for the company,” he said, citing Comcast-Charter or large internet players looking to reach critical mass in streaming quickly.