Negative CAGR Looms for Amazon Smart Speaker Sales in North America: Omdia

Amazon smart speaker shipments will have a minus 3.2% compound annual growth rate through 2026, Omdia forecast Wednesday, saying smart speaker sales have peaked in North America, with a 1.3% compound annual growth rate expected through 2026. Amazon had an installed base of 110 million speakers in North America last year, double that of Google, whose smart speaker sales are projected to have a 0.2% CAGR through the period. Omdia estimated Apple HomePod growth of 11.7%, “predicated on the release of a new smart speaker.” Without a product refresh, Apple’s outlook is flat, Omdia said. "Smart speakers have become ubiquitous in the U.S.," said analyst Blake Kozak, saying price is no longer a barrier to adoption. Since smart speakers “don't need to be replaced unless they fail, growth is about to come to a grinding stop in the North American market," Kozak said. New use cases in healthcare could mean a “second life” for the devices, he said. Globally, the smart speaker market was about $13 billion in 2021, up from about $12.1 billion in 2020, on unit sales of 190 million. Annual shipments are expected to reach 273 million in 2026 for a 7.5% CAGR, it said.