Bogdan-Martin Likely Ahead of Russian in ITU Polling, but Votes Are Hard to Count

Doreen Bogdan-Martin remains the front-runner to be elected ITU secretary-general at the ITU Plenipotentiary Conference, which starts Sept. 26, but industry officials who have been trying to count votes say nothing is guaranteed. Some warned of "ripple effects" if Russian nominee Rashid Ismailov is elected, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The vote comes a year ahead of the next World Radiocommunications Conference.

“The U.S. has put forth a very qualified candidate, but unfortunately geopolitical issues certainly influence ITU operations and outcomes, sadly, more so of late,” said former FCC Commissioner Mike O’Rielly. “This vote has the potential to rip through and mangle the ITU, especially WRC-23,” he said.

“There certainly will be sizable, problematic ripple effects on everything the ITU does if Rashid wins,” said a former senior government official: “Hopefully we will never have to know for sure as lots of us around the world are counting on Doreen to win.”

“If I were betting on this, I still would expect Doreen Bogdan-Martin to narrowly win, but only if the State Department invests the time, money and effort to champion her candidacy,” said Rob Frieden, Penn State University professor emeritus-telecommunications and law: “ITU delegations like to be lobbied and persuaded.”

More will be known after the ITU Telecom Development (ITU-D) conference in Kigali, Rwanda, June 6-16, officials said. Bogdan-Martin was elected in 2018 to lead the ITU-D Bureau, making her the highest-ranking woman in ITU history. Ismailov, and a sizable Russian delegation, are expected to attend that conference.

In an April vote at the U.N. General Assembly, members adopted a resolution saying Russia should be suspended from the Human Rights Council. But the vote shows the global split over the invasion of Ukraine, which has been condemned in Europe and parts of the Asia-Pacific region but not everywhere in the world. In the 193-member assembly, 93 nations voted in favor and 24 against, but 58 abstained.

Voting no were: Russia, China, Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Congo, Cuba, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mali, Nicaragua, North Korea, Syria, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam and Zimbabwe. Abstaining nations included India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Pakistan, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Cambodia.

The vote for ITU secretary-general is by closed ballot, with each nation getting a single vote. Officials said each delegation head casts a vote, must fill in the form correctly for it to count, and can’t be in arrears to the ITU. Typically, 150-160 nations cast votes in an ITU election.

“It’s important for the United States not to assume any particular country’s vote, but to actually continue to campaign and work for each and every vote,” said Fiona Alexander, former NTIA associate administrator-international affairs, who helped lead Bogdan-Martin’s last campaign at the ITU. “That’s how you win -- you have to work for every vote,” she said (see 2205110073).

“Nation delegations are led by government officials, and typically so-called nation state votes correspond to their political interests,” Frieden said: “Under normal conditions, a sufficient majority would vote, even without disclosure, for a Russian candidate, because the combination of Chinese and Russian foreign relations” and “foreign direct investment … would buy loyalty. That said, the Russian invasion tightens the race.” Frieden noted all the “so-called allies” of the U.S. and EU that abstained in the April vote.

“The ITU is not the U.N.,” and has “its own independent treaty-based set of intergovernmental organizations back to 1850,” emailed Anthony Rutkowski, former counselor to two secretaries-general and a former chief of the Relations Between Members Division. After World War II, “the U.S. both forced aggregation of the organizations into one, and created an affiliation with the otherwise independent U.N.,” he said.

Rutkowski noted Russia has been a continuing financial contributor to the ITU but not an active participant. “To the extent Russia has participated at all, it has been generally to advance a few of its own self-interests and widely viewed as not-helpful,” he said: “The U.S. has been the converse over the past 75 years, and even if its engagement has diminished from its zenith over the past 20 years, it has been significant. … Doreen has played a significant role over the past decade in bringing resources and interacting directly with developing countries.” Ismailov is “almost certainly part” of Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle and is “the worst of all worlds from a nation state that is a global pariah,” Rutkowski said.