Tech Leads 'Out-of-Stocks' Heading Into Black Friday Weekend: Adobe

Electronics had the highest online out-of-stock levels as of Tuesday, Adobe reported in a Wednesday email. Overall, out-of-stock messages were up 8% in a week; for November, they were up 261% vs. pre-pandemic levels in November 2019, it said.

Consumers had spent $72.2 billion online, up 19.8% year on year from Nov. 1-23 heading into Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend, Adobe reported. Numbers reinforced reports that consumers started shopping early due to logistics bottlenecks. Surging demand indicates “that even with persistent out-of-stock messages, shoppers are getting comfortable with buying something that may not have been at the top of their list,” Adobe said.

The analytics firm predicts a Nov. 1-Dec. 31 spend of $207 billion online, representing a 10% year-on-year increase. It predicts Cyber Monday will repeat as the biggest online shopping day of the year, forecasting Nov. 29 receipts totaling a record $11.3 billion.

Thanksgiving store closures were expected to contribute to online spending that day of $5.1 billion-$5.9 billion, also a record, Adobe said. Through Tuesday, the 2021 holiday season had 23 $2 billion e-commerce days and 16 $3 billion days. That compared with 20 $2 billion and three $3 billion days for the year-ago period, it said.

Toys are leading sales, up 256% since September, with Adobe citing “anxious parents, increasingly aware of supply chain challenges,” having gotten a head start. Video game sales are up 160% since September, it said.

Consumers are expected to spend 9% more this year during Cyber Week despite higher prices; prices were up 1.9% year on year in October, Adobe said. Offline prices are “surging at a much greater rate,” it said, saying “e-commerce remains a less expensive, more convenient alternative.”

Early deals this year included TVs, averaging 11.7% discounts vs. 16.7% discounts a year-ago, and computers, seeing 13.3% average discounts vs. 16.1% during holiday 2020, Adobe said. The deepest discounts are expected on Sunday before Cyber Monday. Saturday is seen having the best deals for electronics; Black Friday will have the best deals for furniture and bedding, it said.

Top CE sellers so far this season are Oculus Quest 2, hoverboards, AirPods Pro, MacBook Air, HP and Dell laptop PCs, Chromecast devices, Samsung and TCL TVs, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S and Pokemon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl games, it said.

Delayed payment options are “becoming more appealing” to shoppers, said Adobe, up 447% in revenue, 466% in units vs. 2019. Growth slowed in recent weeks, down 8.5% year on year in revenue and 20% in orders on Tuesday, it said.

Curbside pickup has sustained momentum, Adobe said, up 92% from November 2019. Curbside pickup was used in 23% of all online orders Tuesday for retailers that offer the service. The use of expedited shipping through Nov. 23 was up 1% vs. November 2019, with standard shipping up 42%, it said.

Smaller retailers ($10 million-$50 million annual revenue) were seeing a slower increase in online sales vs. larger retailers (over $1 billion) this month. Large retailers had an e-commerce spike of 12% over October levels, Adobe said, citing larger retailers’ ability to drive early sales through deals and marketing.

Smartphones were used for 41.3% of online sales through Tuesday, up 6.5% year on year. They accounted for 59.4% of visits to retail websites, showing, Adobe said, that consumers like to browse on a mobile device but “still prefer a desktop” PC to make the purchase.