NRF Expects Fewer Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday Shoppers Than in 2019

Despite consumers’ early holiday shopping start this year, the National Retail Federation expects a year-on-year increase of 2 million shoppers from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, it said Wednesday, though the estimated 158.3 million are below the 165.3 million who shopped in 2019.

“Black Friday stopped being a one-day event years ago, and this year some consumers started shopping for Christmas as early as Halloween,” said NRF CEO Matthew Shay, encouraging consumers to shop safely and early. Two-thirds of holiday shoppers in a November Prosper Insights survey said they planned to shop over Thanksgiving weekend, 65% in stores, including 64% on Black Friday. Six in 10 consumers had already begun shopping, with 46% starting earlier than usual; 28% had finished their shopping by early November, it said.

The survey found 30.6 million plan to shop either in-store or online on Thanksgiving Day, 108 million on Black Friday, 58.1 million on Small Business Saturday, 31.2 million on Sunday and 62.8 million on Cyber Monday, said NRF.

Motivators for Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping are deals that are “too good to pass up” for 58% of shoppers, and "tradition," NRF said. A Wednesday Coupa Software report said lingering supply chain disruptions will put a dent in holiday season promotions.

A Coupa survey of 618 retail supply chain leaders in the U.S., U.K., France and Germany found 71% of retailers that usually offer Black Friday deals won't offer as many this year, 25% will offer 25%-50% fewer deals, and 10% will offer 50%-75% fewer deals. Fifty-one percent offered promotions earlier and 46% displayed products earlier, said the report.

More than six in 10 retailer respondents were concerned supply chain disruptions will affect their holiday revenue. Retailers anticipate revenue losses of 5%-20% from the past 18 months due to supply chain issues, "translating into billions lost for some of the world's biggest economies," Coupa said.

The data analytics firm cited “broad agreement” among retailers that supply chain challenges will continue long term, with 91% expecting revenue to be affected by supply chain issues for at least the next six months. Some 55% of retailers surveyed said they're concerned or very concerned that their suppliers could close due to financial struggles.

The top issues retailers reported facing are shortages and delays due to shipping containers, followed by "long supply chains" and driver shortages, said Coupa. Impact from Brexit affected business for 46% of U.K. retailers, 14% in Germany and 9% in France.

The top five categories shoppers plan to buy during the holiday season are clothing, gift cards, toys, content and food or candy, said NRF. Spending on gift cards is expected to total $28.1 billion, the highest since $29.9 billion in 2018, with consumers planning to buy an average three or four cards averaging $48.92 per card.