Deals, Inventory Warnings Prompting Early Holiday Shopping, Surveys Show

Widespread reports of out-of-stock items are pushing consumers to shop earlier for the holidays this year in what’s being forecast as a strong season for retail, various surveys showed this week.

A Thursday Pitney Bowes report said the number of survey respondents who started holiday shopping jumped from 25% to 42% mid-September to early October. Fourteen percent of shoppers have completed their planned holiday shopping, it said. Consumers are responding to early holiday promotions from Amazon, Target and Walmart, said the shipping company, noting retailers are hoping to spread anticipated high demand for holiday gifts over a longer period of time to ease pressure on the supply chain.

Large retailers are in the best position to address inventory and supply chain issues, said Gregg Zegras, Pitney Bowes president-global ecommerce, saying the company is urging mid- and smaller e-commerce clients to “pull demand earlier by communicating with consumers more urgently and more often ahead of this holiday season.”

Generation X and millennials are the most likely demographic groups to pull purchases forward, said Pitney Bowes: 43% of millennials plan to finish online shopping by Black Friday and 14% by Cyber Monday, 42% and 10% for Gen X consumers, it said. Overall, 36% of adults plan to start their online holiday shopping by Black Friday. Fifty-three percent of consumers plan to do most shopping online, it said.

Three-fourths of consumers are worried about “stockouts,” said a Sept. 7-14 Deloitte survey of 4,315 consumers, saying electronics and accessories lead the categories consumers are most concerned about at 49%. Some 68% of respondents plan to shop before Thanksgiving, 43% before the end of October.

A Deloitte survey of 30 retail executives fielded Sept. 3-16 showed 70% expected consumers to spend more this year than in 2020, but 64% were concerned about receiving inventory in time for the holidays. That’s despite 43% placing orders earlier than usual, some as early as March, Deloitte said.

Overall spending will increase across categories this holiday season, with 45% of households planning to spend the same or more on the holidays, said Deloitte. Spending will average $1,463 per household, up 5% from last year, approaching 2019 levels, it said, though the consulting firm identified a “tale of two holiday seasons,” with higher income households planning to spend 15% more than in 2020 ($2,624 per household), while lower-income ones plan to spend 22% less ($536).

Lower income shoppers expect to spend less based on inflation expectations; 50% said they will spend less due to higher food prices. Among consumers who plan to spend more, 39% attributed the higher budget to the higher cost of goods. Five in 10 retail executives said they expect higher prices over the season.

Black Friday events will “rebound” this year, said Deloitte, after many were canceled last year due to COVID-19: 31% of shoppers plan to spend on Black Friday vs. 24% last year, and 34% plan to shop on Cyber Monday, up from 29%. Stores are expected to get a third of holiday spending, said Deloitte, up from 28% last year but below the 36% in 2019. Digital shopping is still having “healthy gains,” it said: online spending is expected to average $924 for the season vs. $892 last year. Forty percent of retail executives expect double-digit online sales growth.

A Thursday National Retail Federation report said supply chain challenges are “top of mind for consumers” for this holiday season, with electronics leading the list of items they’re concerned about securing, at 44% vs. clothes (40%) and toys (28%). NRF’s survey of 7,921 consumers about winter holiday shopping plans, fielded Oct. 1-10, showed consumers plan to spend $997.73 on gifts, holiday items and other non-gift purchases for themselves and their families this year. That’s below the pre-pandemic high of $1,047.83 in 2019.

Forty-nine percent of holiday shoppers said they will start browsing and buying before November, up from 42% last year, to avoid the stress of last-minute shopping; 36% said they don’t want to miss out on key holiday items. About 57% plan to buy holiday items online this year, down from 60% last year. Among brick-and-mortar store shoppers, 47% plan to shop department stores, 44% discount stores and 24% at a local store or small business, it said.