Slow Pace on International Space Rule Development Criticized

The world is moving too slowly on international rules and standards to tackle the non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) satellite boom, space law experts said Tuesday at the Satellite 2021 conference and trade show. Work toward such a legal regulatory regime should have started long before now, said Jennifer Manner, EchoStar senior vice president-regulatory affairs.

Agreeing, U.N. Office for Outer Space Affairs Director Simonetta Di Pippo said a big challenge for UNOOSA is reaching universal consensus, especially as the number of space-going nations grows. UNOOSA had 95 member states in 2019, and hit 100 this year, she said. The U.N. agency is trying to deal increasingly with all space stakeholders, including the private sector, she said.

Space lawyer Charles Mudd said there should be more rules governing the orbital debris dangers inherent in the thousands of NGSO satellites potentially coming. Manner said global norms need to be created collectively by expert agencies. She said it's disappointing that space sustainability wasn't part of the Artemis Accords 2020 international agreement on the U.S. and other nations partnering on a return to the moon.

Manner criticized a lack of U.S. leadership in pushing space sustainability norms globally, saying that’s due to there not being a quick economic benefit. China and Russia also aren’t racing to be first in space sustainability, she said, noting the U.S. doesn’t necessarily want them spearheading such an effort. "We can't wait for another treaty," Mudd said. "We don't have that time."

Space businesses going public via special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) mergers may ultimately be making a strategic mistake, satellite operator executives cautioned. Iridium Investors CEO Matt Desch said investors get quicker returns on their investments, but the companies "have a tough road to go" long term as they deal with investors unfamiliar with their business models and having to innovate while following the disclosure rules of publicly traded firms. He said companies that go public via SPAC will end up struggling to raise capital in the future unless they hit every milestone and explain it in sizable detail. SPAC deal enthusiasm "will wane eventually," Desch said.

Echoing Desch's warnings, SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said SpaceX's Starlink "will look and feel like a public company" in a few years, with a clear business model, operations in all the major markets around the globe and dependable cash flows.

Johnsen said the next-generation end-user dishes SpaceX plans to roll out this fall will be about half the expense of the company’s current dishes, though still more expensive than what subscribers are paying for them. He said SpaceX is producing about 5,000 dishes a week, and will be able to turn out multiple times that a week of the next-gen dish. He said about 1,700 Starlink satellites are in orbit now, and a launch allowing it to provide polar coverage will come within days. He said it has more than 100,000 customers on its network and a backlog of more than 500,000 deposits and orders. He said Starlink started with a focus on consumer broadband, but it's also moving on enterprise, working with two telecom providers on backhaul service and talking to others. It said it also is starting qualification testing for in-flight connectivity service.

Low earth orbit (LEO) interoperability with geostationary orbit satellite systems "must happen," OneWeb CEO Neil Masterson said. "It's common sense" given the existing GEO capacity and the fact GEO customers aren't going to want to wholesale switch to LEO in one big swoop. He said the $2.7 billion the company has raised is "more than enough" to deliver its constellation. He said it should be able to provide service to far-north latitudes by the end of November, and global coverage by next year's end.

LEO satellite operations need to grow the satellite market share overall, rather than just take market share from other parts of the satellite industry, said Speedcast Vice President-Engineering Operations Will Mudge. LEO hasn't yet done that market expansion, but is seemingly on the cusp of doing so, he said. He said LEO operators should be able to charge a premium for some low-latency services, such as voice.

Desch said it could take five to 10 years before it becomes clear which LEO networks are viable long term and generating a return on investment. He predicted a number of "zombie companies" that languish along for years and eke out an existence but generate low returns. There have been predictions for years about satellite industry consolidation that haven't come to pass, but "ultimately some [companies] will have to," Desch said. He said such consolidation will be slow and targeted rather than an aggressive wave

The satellite industry event required masking for all attendees, though panelists frequently eschewed masking. The event also recommended, but didn’t require, vaccinations.