'A Lot Riding on Q4' Box Office for Studios, Says Wedbush in CinemaCon Recap

The Q4 2021 domestic box office will be about 65% of Q4 2019 -- and the full year at about 35% of 2019 -- Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter modeled in a Friday investor note after CinemaCon 2021 in Las Vegas last week. The Q4 box office could rebound if studios are willing to “hold their Q4 movie releases and not delay further,” and if Disney chooses an exclusive window for its Q4 releases, Pachter said. There’s “a lot riding on Q4,” said the analyst, “as COVID persists and as studios settle on the right theatrical windowing formula to maximize box office.” Studio executives and talent thanked attending exhibitors often via prerecorded video, he said. Themes emerging from the National Association of Theatre Owners and exhibitors included concerns about day-and-date releases, led by piracy and cannibalization, Pachter said. A repeated theme was that day-and-date releases weren’t financially viable for studios, which gave “consistent messaging” signaling a commitment to the theatrical window for a “semi-normal” state in 2020, he said. Disney didn’t make a presentation, leaving its release plans unknown. Other unknowns for the industry are whether the delta variant will lead to theater closures or reduced demand and whether studios will stick to the current release slate, said Pachter, who believes attendance will continue to be driven by content vs. virus concerns.