Pandemic-Led Trends to Drive 8% Retail Tech Bump in '21, Says CTA

Demand for technology for work, school and lifestyle will drive a 7.5% increase in retail tech sales this year to a record $487 billion, said CTA Thursday. The COVID-19 pandemic “strengthened consumers’ relationship with technology forever,” said CTA CEO Gary Shapiro.

CTA included for the first time connected exercise equipment such as stationary bikes, rowers and treadmills, referencing Peloton and MYXfitness. The connected exercise category shipped 1.5 million units last year; shipments are forecast to rise 43% in 2021 to 2 million, with revenue growing 40% to $3.9 billion.

TV revenue is forecast to grow 5% to $24 billion, but shipments will decline by 2 million to 45 million units, CTA said. Over 75% of TVs shipped this year will be 4K; some 2.6 million 8K TV shipments are expected to generate $5.7 billion. CTA said shipments of LCD TVs over 70 inches will total 4.3 million, $4.4 billion in revenue. ATSC 3.0 TV shipments are due to increase sixfold to 2.1 million, bringing in $3.9 billion.

Audiobooks and podcasts are driving growth in the audio category, which is projected to grow 18% to $10 billion this year. Video streaming, fueled by stay-at-home trends during the pandemic, is expected to have continued growth this year, said CTA. Video streaming revenue will rise 15% to $43 billion. Gaming services will decline 2% to $48 billion, after a 25% revenue jump in 2020.

Gaming consoles, which experienced widespread shortages last year due to component supply issues, will grow this year, said CTA. Combined home and portable console shipments are forecast to rise 6% to 19 million, with revenue growing 18% to $6 billion, CTA said.

Supply chain disruptions caused a “pause” in the 2020 VR and AR hardware category, which is seen rebounding this year. VR shipments are expected to grow 30% to 2.7 million units. Total AR and VR hardware shipments will rise 34% year on year, to over $1 billion, CTA said.

Shipments of connected health monitoring devices, such as smart thermometers, pulse oximeters and blood pressure monitors, will grow 23% year on year to 13 million units, generating a 17% revenue increase to $740 million, CTA said. Total revenue of health and fitness tech will reach $13 billion in 2021, up 12%. Smartwatches are expected to grow 8% in units, driven by “tech-savvy and fashion-conscious consumers.”

Smartphone shipments will rise 10% this year to 154 million units, earning $73 billion, up 15% led by 5G handsets. More than 106 million 5G smartphones are expected to ship this year, a 530% jump, producing revenue of $61 billion, CTA said.

Work-from-home trends continuing from 2020 are extending laptop growth trends, said the report. Units are projected to rise 9% this year to 76 million units, said CTA; revenue will rise 11% to $45 billion. True wireless earbuds, led by Apple AirPods and Samsung Galaxy Buds, are having continued strong growth this year, said CTA. Some 88 million units are forecast to ship in 2021, up 27% from last year, generating an 8% bump in revenue to $8.7 billion.

More than 100 million smart home devices are expected to ship in 2021, up 11% from last year, but revenue is expected to be flat at $15 billion. Smart speakers and home robots are driving demand, CTA said.

The personal mobility category, including battery-powered bikes and scooters, is one of the fastest-growing consumer tech categories, said CTA. E-bike shipments are forecast to rise 15% to 1.2 million, generating $1.9 billion, 3% higher than a year ago. Shipments of e-toys, including robots and musical instruments, will reach 61 million, a 7% increase, earning $3.6 billion in 2021, said CTA. Toys with a science, technology, engineering and math focus are expected to grow 19% to 4.7 million shipments, generating $187 million.