Nathanson Sees Sports or Ad Tiers as Possible Netflix Growth Drivers

Netflix’s venture into consumer products, announced several weeks ago, along with reports it may be expanding its game offerings, indicate the company is “looking to build a new profit pool or two a la Disney,” MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson wrote investors Tuesday. But consumer products or gaming won’t be enough “to change the narrative,” said the analyst, suggesting Netflix instead should add a live sports tier or advertising-based VOD offering to reach new customer segments and markets, especially in emerging regions with low average revenue per user. Since the start of 2018, Netflix has underperformed the S&P 500, rising 34% vs. 57% for the broader market, Nathanson said, saying a maturing U.S. subscriber base and an intensifying competitive environment among streaming services contributed to limited stock performance. He questioned how much growth is left in Netflix’s subscription VOD business, while “the success of AVOD businesses has been especially notable this year, and Netflix seemingly would have pole position to capture that market.” He noted Netflix “has a fundamental opposition to advertising,” but he said emerging pressure to find growth “as well as a more developed AVOD ecosystem may make Netflix more amenable to advertising on the service.” Netflix benefited from the COVID-19 pandemic with record subscribership last year, but subscriber growth slowed to below guidance in Q1 at 4 million subscription adds. The analyst expects an acceleration in signups in the second half as more content is available, but “as economies further reopen, we believe people will spend more time engaging through in-person activities rather than streaming content at home.” Netflix didn’t comment Tuesday.