Consumer Confidence Highest Since Start of Pandemic: Conference Board

Consumer intentions on buying new TV sets held steady in June, compared with April and May, but were down noticeably from June 2020, the third full month of COVID-19 lockdowns, reported the Conference Board Tuesday. The economic think tank's monthly consumer confidence index in June surged to its highest level “since the onset of the pandemic’s first surge in March 2020,” it said.

Market research company Toluna canvassed a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults online through June 23, finding 11.2% said they plan to buy new TV sets in the next six months, according to preliminary data released by the board. That was about on par with the 11.3% in May and 11.6% in April who said they plan new TV purchases, but down from the 12.6% in June 2020 who expressed similar intentions. June was the second month the board used Toluna’s online survey methodology after years of commissioning Nielsen to do the monthly consumer surveys through the mail.

Consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions improved in June, suggesting a strengthening of economic growth in Q2, said the board. “Consumers’ short-term optimism rebounded, buoyed by expectations that business conditions and their own financial prospects will continue improving in the months ahead,” it said.

Short-term “inflation expectations” increased in June, but this appeared to have had “little impact on consumers’ confidence or purchasing intentions,” said the board. Its analysts take that as a sign “that consumer spending will continue to support economic growth in the short-term,” it said. “Vacation intentions also rose, reflecting a continued increase in spending on services.”

Toluna’s canvassing uncovered significant June improvement in consumers’ appraisal of current business conditions, compared with May, said the board. It found 24.5% of consumers polled categorized business conditions as good, up from 19.9% in May. Fewer than a fifth, 19.5%, claimed business conditions were bad, down from 20.6% in May. A clear majority of consumers, 54.4%, described jobs in the current environment as “plentiful,” up from 48.5% a month earlier. Paychex predicts “continued challenges for employers as Americans continue to get vaccinated, state restrictions relax and businesses fully reopen,” said its CEO Friday (see 2106260002). “The war for talent has intensified.”

June also brought a clear uptick in consumers’ optimism about business conditions six months down the road, said the board. More than a third, 33.3%, told pollsters they expect conditions to improve by December, up from 31% who expressed similar expectations in May. Only 10.6% of respondents said in June they expect business conditions to worsen, down from 14.4% a month earlier.