LEO to Dominate Inflight Connectivity, Say Satellite Operators

Airline broadband connectivity via geostationary orbit (GSO) satellite is on its way out, with low earth orbit (LEO) constellations likely to claim most if not all that market by decade's end, satellite executives said Wednesday during the annual Connected Aviation Intelligence Summit. OneWeb Vice President-Mobility Ben Griffin said many airlines he has spoken with in the past year are "positively anxious" about LEO and its promised capacity, coverage and low latency benefits over GSO. Vice President-Starlink and Commercial Sales Jonathan Hofeller said SpaceX similarly is in talks with several airlines and has its own aviation service in development. He said the company has done some demos and plans to get it finalized for aircraft deployment "in the very near future." Griffin said aviation is "a fairly risk-averse" industry and won't adopt LEO connectivity quickly, as it waits instead to see that networks and constellations are established with a level of credibility. He said LEO connectivity deals likely will start ramping up in the back half of the decade. Hofeller said by the end of the decade, a good number of GSO satellites in orbit will be decommissioned and it's unclear if all will be replaced. He said within 10 years, LEO will be the norm for inflight connectivity. Hofeller said SpaceX has spent considerable time trying to estimate what bandwidth will be needed to serve a particular flight. He said one challenge is that usage will change over time, since usage now on airlines reflects the relatively meager service that's available. Telesat Director-Commercial and Product Development Manik Vinnakota said flights get perhaps 10 to 30 Mbps downlink service, while 50-100 Mbps could easily be needed, and perhaps more for widebody jets. He said links to aircraft also will get more symmetrical as people increasingly send as well as download files. Uplinks of 30-40 Mbps might be needed, he said.