Experts Expect US to Rejoin JCPOA as Early as This Summer

The U.S. and Iran will likely come to an agreement on the Iran nuclear deal as early as this summer, which could lift a range of economic sanctions on Iran, two foreign policy experts said. Although talks between the two sides have progressed over the past several weeks, the experts say it remains unclear how the sanctions will be lifted and whether a more comprehensive, revised deal will follow.

“There’s a very high likelihood that this deal will be revived sometime in 2021,” said Karim Sadjadpour, a Middle East policy expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, speaking during a May 27 event hosted by the think tank. He said the Biden administration is “absolutely committed to reviving” the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and Iran will rejoin the deal to “reverse its economic decline” brought on by U.S. sanctions.

“It is never wise to make predictions about Iranian politics,” Sadjadpour said. “But if I had to make a prediction. I would say that the deal will be revived sometime this summer.”

A State Department official recently said the U.S. and Iran have had “constructive” talks in indirect meetings and expressed optimism a deal will be reached (see 2105060044). The “bigger” question, Sadjadpour said, is who will move first to rejoin the deal and what will be included in a potential follow-on agreement, such as additional relief regarding sanctions and other trade restrictions.

“China, Russia, our European allies all supported the baseline policy to avert nuclear arms to Iran,” he said. “But it's unclear, when we try to reach this follow-on agreement, if we will have that same consensus.”

The follow-on agreement may be challenging in part because the U.S. has little remaining leverage over Iran, Sadjadpour said, noting the two sides have cut off almost all trade. “It has to be a multilateral approach involving both European allies but also Russia and China,” he said. “China is really Iran's most important strategic and economic partner.”

But He Wenping, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the U.S. still maintains the most leverage over the U.S. because it can offer sanctions relief. And while both Iran and the U.S. are unsure who will take the first step to rejoin the JCPOA, she said, that responsibility should fall on the U.S. because it was the country that originally withdrew from the deal. “Correct it yourself,” she said during the event. “I think that’s reasonable.”