EU Vaccine Export Controls Seen Unlikely to Have Lasting Effects

A month after the Jan. 29 imposition of export controls on vaccines in the European Union (see 2102010012), industry experts say the controls were meant only to send a message to vaccine manufacturers at risk of failing to fulfill their contracts, and that the measures have no real risk of drastically reorienting global vaccine supply chains. The controls were issued as a way to make sure British pharmaceutical company and vaccine developer AstraZeneca satisfied commitments to the EU and didn't redirect vaccine shipments to the United Kingdom, among other locations, experts said. The EU has yet to use the export authorization regime.

The export controls are a simple control regime requiring very little compliance from vaccine manufacturers, Stefan Tsakanakis of Steptoe & Johnson in Brussels said in an interview. Vaccine manufacturers looking to export their product must fill out an export authorization form -- a one-page document resembling a customs form. Since the form's imposition, the European Commission has yet to exercise the controls, issuing around 45 authorizations, according to Tsakanakis' latest numbers. “It’s less about actually blocking all these exports, but more to see if there’s really a strategic issue with those exports that create huge shortages,” Tsakanakis said. “In reality, it’s not like COVID-19 vaccines can’t be exported to third countries anymore. It’s mainly an administrative burden I think and a way to control it, at least that’s what it looks like so far.”

The controls were issued with huge exceptions, including 92 low- and middle-income countries and neighboring countries Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland. Notably, countries vulnerable to the controls include the U.K., U.S., Canada and Japan. Tsakanakis speculated the controls were put in place following loud and sustained criticism from European civil society over the vaccine rollout, especially after AstraZeneca, which manufactures its vaccines in the EU, came close to not fulfilling the terms of its advance purchase agreement (APA) with the EU. “It sort of strengthens the EU position a bit because over the last month, especially, the commission has been heavily criticized saying they should have bought more, invested more, they should’ve been more strict, whatever that means with the producers, so I do think they realized they need to get this going,” Tsakanakis said.

As for the controls' effects on the global supply chains of vaccines and other related goods, Anne van de Heetkamp, Descartes Systems Group vice president of product management, says not to worry. That the pandemic came in the middle of Brexit and global supply chains largely held between the EU, the U.K. and other major manufacturers, shows global integration is beneficial, especially when it's unknown precisely what products are needed for the next vaccine. Heetkamp speculated countries may lean into these globalized supply chains and secure pre-contracts with international firms, asking manufacturers to allot them a percentage of any future vaccines they develop.

Heetkamp also described the EU vaccine export control efforts as posturing. The only real threat the controls would be used would come if any vaccine manufacturer were in danger of falling short of its APA commitments, she said. “While there hasn’t been a decision yet to have someone stand in front of a plane and prevent it from taking off, it looks like there’s a bit of posturing going around, and the EU already limited the whole exposure to one manufacturer at this point in time,” Heetkamp said. “And that one manufacturer of course is the one that collaborates with a United Kingdom entity, which makes it extra sour for the U.K. if they would not be able to get their hands on that particular vaccine.”