Biden Admin Has Host of Sanctions, Trade Issues to Contend With in Middle East, Experts Say

The Biden administration has a range of pressing trade- and sanctions-related issues to address in the Middle East, including charting a path to restoring the Iranian nuclear deal, ensuring sanctions are not hindering humanitarian aid and recruiting Middle East allies to counter Chinese technology competition, experts said.

Limiting Iran’s ability to build nuclear weapons may be most critical. But the Biden administration should not rush into rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or removing sanctions without thoughtful diplomacy and a careful plan, said Suzanne Maloney, a Brookings Institution foreign policy expert, speaking during a Feb. 22 event hosted by the think tank. “The administration really needs to focus on getting the policy right,” she said, “not on doing it faster or doing it on the cheap.”

Maloney said the Biden administration should not cave to demands by the Iranians, who have been increasingly breaching the terms of the JCPOA since the U.S. withdrew from the deal in 2018 (see 2011200018). She also said U.S. negotiations with Iran should include input from allies. “While I would favor a longer and stronger deal, I think our goal now should be diplomacy with Iran to try to deter its worst behaviors,” Maloney said. “We should undertake it in a way that has proven most successful, that is in close coordination with allies and partners around the world.”

Will Hurd, a former Republican member of Congress from Texas, also urged patience. “Seeking a deal just for a deal’s sake is the wrong way to go,” he said. “This is one area that I think we have to be steadfast.” The process to rejoin the JCPOA or establish a new deal is expected to take months of bureaucratic work and negotiations, including time-consuming decisions on which sanctions should be lifted (see 2101280043). Although Biden Cabinet members said the administration wants to rejoin the JCPOA, they also said the move is not imminent (see 2101190060).

The U.S. last week told France, Germany and the United Kingdom that it will rejoin the deal “if Iran comes back into strict compliance with its commitments.” A senior State Department official told reporters last week that the U.S. plans to negotiate a “longer, stronger” deal after rejoining the JCPOA and would be open to meeting with Iran. “I think we recognize that this is just a very first initial step,” the official said. “We recognize that that’s not in and of itself a breakthrough. Even the first meeting itself may not be a breakthrough. So we’re not going to hype it for what it isn’t, but it is a step. Until we sit down and talk, nothing’s going to happen.”

The official also said the U.S. has no plans to unilaterally lift sanctions on Iran until the two sides meet. “I assume this is going to be a painstaking and difficult process that’s going to take some time,” the official said.

The Biden administration has moved more quickly to reverse other Trump administration policies toward the Middle East, including the revocation of the terrorism designation for Ansarallah, the Yemen-based group also known as Houthis (see 2102100016 and 2102160031). That decision showed that the Biden administration “acknowledges that the humanitarian crisis needs to be forefront on the global agenda,” said Meghan O’Sullivan, an international affairs professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. The State Department revoked the designation due to concerns that the sanctions were impeding humanitarian shipments to Yemen.

“Delisting the Houthis has made it more possible for humanitarian aid to flow,” said Maloney, a deputy national security adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan during the George W. Bush administration. “I think that has to be very, very high on the list of priorities when it comes to Yemen policy or policy towards the Arabian Peninsula.”

Although the Biden administration must address several policies specific to the Middle East, the region is also important for U.S. competition with China, Hurd said. He called for a clear economic national security strategy in the Middle East to counter China, which is also prioritizing relationships in the region. “Some of our great partners in the Middle East are saying, ‘Don't make us choose between the U.S. and China,’” he said. “They're implying that we're probably not going to like what the answer may be.”

The administration should focus on recruiting Middle East allies to counter China’s “Belt and Road Initiative,” especially as that country tries to supplant the U.S. as a global leader of emerging technologies (see 2102160074 and 2012010043), Hurd said. “We’ve got to make sure that we're developing technologies and exporting technologies that, especially around artificial intelligence, apply to the ethics that are supportive of freedom, and not the ethics driven by a totalitarian regime, like the Chinese,” he said.