No Urgency Felt on JCPOA Renewal, Experts Say

While just two weeks into the Biden administration, any sense of urgency needed to bring the U.S. back into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to dismantle Iran's ability to create a nuclear weapon is not being felt from either the Americans or Europeans. Speaking at a Feb. 3 Chatham House event on the future of the JCPOA, Middle East experts Dalia Dassa Kaye and Azadeh Zamirirad from the Wilson Center and the Middle East and Africa Division, SWP Berlin, respectively, both shared the view of a lack of urgency amid high expectations for the new U.S. president to lead the U.S. to rejoin the agreement.

Kaye said that the goal of the new administration should be to get to a multilateral setting as soon as possible in a discreet forum since the Iranians are trying to gain as much leverage as possible ahead of any future negotiations. Zamirirad then provided a European perspective by saying that there hasn't been much of a public effort by European lawmakers to gin up support for urgent negotiations. As a matter of fact, conflicting statements between French and German officials only feeds into the fundamental challenge of the massive credibility and trust gap that exists among the U.S., Europe and Iran.

“What I would be most concerned with now is timing,” Kaye said. “To get to the table. To get to that multilateral, that joint commission to solve these process issues and figure out how a compliance arrangement would work. Right now, the biggest challenge is because expectations are high and the Iranians are trying to gain some leverage in this negotiation, and they're ramping up their nuclear activity to worrying degrees. They clearly see an urgency to moving this forward, getting the attention of the Biden Administration and getting this as high on the agenda as it can be. ... I think there is some concern that there is not a sense of urgency on the U.S. side, which may be feeding in ironically to the Iranian sense of urgency.”

While both sides of the Atlantic have issued platitudes about wanting to craft a multilateral deal with Iran, it is clear that neither side is rushing to jump into a quick agreement. In his confirmation hearing, Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated that renewing JCPOA negotiations will be a long-term priority by saying the U.S. will work with allies on a stronger agreement but that “we're a long way from there” (see 2101190060). In November 2020, the United Kingdom, France and Germany issued a statement declaring that Iran’s “numerous, serious violations” of its nuclear commitments stood as a major concern regarding any future negotiations (see 2011200018).

Zamirirad suggested both sides are to blame, with the U.S. is responsible for a breakdown in trust due to its maximum pressure campaign and the Europeans responsible for a lack of capability to provide a sustainable solution. “It's an issue that's not that easy to overcome particularly with the circumstances in which the Trump administration withdrew,” she said. “It was at a time in which Iran was fully complying with its commitments in the JCPOA. Again, this feeds into this idea with the Iranian political elite that no matter what Iran does, it's never going to be enough.”