‘Tailwinds Potential’ Looms for NextGenTV Set Adoption: CTA's Koenig

CTA forecasts that the consumer tech industry will ship 800,000 NextGenTV sets this year, for 167% growth from 2020's 300,000 units, Vice President-Research Steve Koenig told a live ATSC webinar. It projects 12 million ATSC 3.0-compatible sets will be shipped in 2024, for 31% of all TV unit volume, he said.

NextGenTV’s biggest growth year in the forecast period through 2024 will be 2022, when 4 million sets will be shipped, a 400% increase over 2021, surpassing 10% of TV unit volume for the first time, he said Tuesday. CTA forecasts the installed base of NextGenTV sets will reach 24.6 million units in 2024, nearly double the installed base of 12.6 million in 2023, said Koenig. There’s “a lot of potential” for the installed base to grow larger, he said. CTA updates its forecasts twice a year and will do so next in July, he said.

Koenig predicts "massive tailwinds potential for adoption." And “if there’s one truism about the TV market, it’s that it’s hypercompetitive.” If one manufacturer succeeds with NextGenTV, “the dominoes are going to fall very, very quickly,” and other TV makers will jump into the business, he said.

"We harvest a huge crop of perspective when it comes to shipment volumes and growth trajectories,” said Koenig. CTA considers 2020 “a historic year” for TV “by a number of measures, really on the back of a very strong year in 2019,” with many manufacturers “rushing in product to get ahead of tariffs,” he said.

"Massive COVID-19 effects" bolstered the TV market in 2020, with “so many different things taking place as a result of the stay-at-home culture,” said Koenig. “Households across America were upgrading flagship displays,” plus “adding multiple displays” in various rooms of the home, he said.

Many remote workers “were forced” to buy smaller TVs for use as computer monitors, said Koenig. “I don’t know if you tried to buy a computer monitor back in March or April of last year, but you were hard-pressed to find those.” He said 2020 was an “epic” year for large-screen TVs, with the industry for the first time surpassing shipments of 3 million sets larger than 70 inches, he said. “We’re going to keep growing” to 3.3 million this year, and “approach” 4 million in 2024, he said.

Mark Aitken, Sinclair senior vice president-advanced technology, addressed during the event how February 2018 comments by Sinclair CEO Chris Ripley saying “better pictures” aren't the “ultimate best use” of 3.0 (see 1802280016) square with Pearl TV’s recent campaign trumpeting the standard as delivering “stunning” video and sound (see 2010300053). “We are, in every host market that we launch, bringing ‘better pictures’” with 1080p HDR, Aitken texted.

Sinclair’s 3.0 content in its launch markets is “format converted, Technicolor ITM derived,” said Aitken, referencing the Intelligent Tone Management algorithm claimed to enable network service providers to upconvert non-HDR video to match native HDR. “When the networks offer better content, we will carry it!” he wrote. “Larger VALUE is created with other services beyond better pictures and sound.” Sinclair has promoted using 3.0 as a platform for addressable advertising, audience measurement, subscription-based services and mobile reception.