Online Sales Soaring, as Consumers Try to Beat Shipping Cost Hikes: Adobe

Online shopping had a 49% year-on-year jump in the days since Cyber Monday, as shoppers look to beat expected shipping cost increases, Adobe Analytics emailed Thursday. Sales have soared even as prices have increased an average 5%-8% from Thanksgiving week, though discounts continue to be strong across electronics (24%), TVs (11%), appliances (16%), sporting goods (16%) and toys (15%), said the data analytics firm.

Adobe maintained its holiday selling season projection of 30% year-on-year growth to $184 billion (see 2012010042). That's a downward revision from its original forecast of $189 billion after Cyber Monday sales came in at the low end of projections. Mobile has generated 39% of total sales at $53 billion, up 47% year on year, said Adobe.

About 56% of orders placed Nov. 1-Dec. 4 got free shipping, Adobe said. The minimum spend to qualify for free shipping rose 8.3% year-on-year; average shipping costs increased 23%, it said. Curbside pickup jumped 88% year-on-year, comprising 23% of all online orders. In December, with shipping deadlines approaching, curbside pickup spiked 94%, delivering a 33% higher conversion rate to retailers who offered it, Adobe said.

Black Friday weekend had a 42.3% decline in brick-and-mortar store traffic and a 23.9% decrease in sales, with shoppers taking advantage of a full month of price promotions as retailers tried to limit in-person crowding due to the COVID-19 surge, said a Wednesday RetailNext report. For the month, physical store traffic fell 37%; sales declined 18% year on year.

Shoppers made purchases earlier in November and throughout the month compared with previous years, said RetailNext. Early and online shopping, promotions and advice to avoid holiday travel crimped traffic and sales trends during Thanksgiving week and Black Friday weekend. Higher conversion rates (up 3.8%), average transaction value (4.9%) and shopper yield (17.7%) during Black Friday weekend showed that shoppers who did brave stores came with an intent to buy during what was once the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. Though Black Friday had year-on-year traffic declines of 48%, it remained the highest traffic day of the year, said the report. Retailers' strategies for early discounting showed up in average transaction value, which fell in the first week of November by 7% year on year.

Mall traffic in November outperformed non-mall traffic, declining 37.6% vs. 40.9% year on year, but non-mall stores outranked malls on Black Friday weekend “as many shoppers were trying to avoid mall crowds,” said RetailNext. The Midwest, with the highest count of COVID-19 cases in November, had the month’s worst traffic trends by region, a drop of 40.2%, said the report. Trends followed into the December shopping season, as the U.S. continues to break records in the number of COVID-19 cases, with many states heading toward shutdowns, it noted.

All states had substantial declines in store traffic in November. South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee and Arkansas were “top performing,” with drops of 19%-23% for the month. New York continues to show the largest store traffic falloff at 49%. Traffic was also down considerably in California (41%), Illinois (40%), Minnesota (42%), New Mexico (46%), Oregon (40%) and Washington (42%).

Online, the average U.S. consumer spent 19% more minutes during Thanksgiving week on retail e-commerce sites than the same 2019 period, due largely to the 136% increase in the CE category, reported Comscore Thursday. Total visits to online stores were up 22% from a year earlier, it said.

Retail website visits were up 33% on the Monday and Tuesday before Thanksgiving, while year-over-year Black Friday online growth was only 14%, it said. “This pre-Thanksgiving spike could partially be due to retailers pushing deals traditionally reserved for Black Friday earlier than in prior years,” said Comscore. The 2020 retail holiday season seemed to “kick into gear” with Amazon's delayed Prime Day event Oct. 13-14, it said: “Soon after, many retailers started announcing Black Friday deals that ran through the entire month of November.”