COVID-19 Weighs on Consumer Sentiment, but E-Commerce Growth Strong: Cowen

Respondents in Cowen's November shopping survey were “somewhat negative” about holiday spending, it emailed investors Thursday. Despite the “soft macro backdrop” from COVID-19, e-commerce spending is expected to “rise significantly,” as 59% of respondents said they would bump up their online holiday shopping; 11% planned to spend less online. Survey data aligned with 44% year-on-year e-commerce growth over the Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday shopfest, as reported by the National Retail Federation (see 2012010042). Cowen estimates U.S. Amazon Prime households rose to 73 million in November: Two-thirds of those expect their online holiday shopping to rise year on year, said analyst John Blackledge, noting that Amazon kicked off holiday shopping with its delayed Prime Day event in early October. Amazon is the most popular site, said the survey, with 84% of respondents planning to shop the leading e-commerce site over the holidays, followed by 50% at retailer sites and 21% each for brand sites and eBay. Amazon’s third-party gross merchandise value grew nearly 60% year on year after Prime Day; it topped 60% over the “Cyber 5” shopping period. Some 44% of survey respondents said they planned to start shopping earlier this year, 42% the same as last year, and 14% later. The elongated season is a positive for e-commerce, said Blackledge, noting that consumers who begin buying earlier could end up spending more overall. Sixteen percent expected to spend more, 29% less, and half about the same as last year. Delivery anxiety is a logical driver behind early buying, dating back to longer delivery times early in the pandemic, said Blackledge. About 56% of respondents said they aren’t worried about delivery times, 36% were moderately worried, and 7% “very worried.” Similar percentages played out among Prime members, with 8% very worried.