Plans for Trump Tariffs in New Administration Remain Unclear

A Joe Biden administration is seen by many as likely to return the U.S. to a more traditional approach to international trade, but there's much still unknown about how and when an unwinding of the Trump administration's policies would occur. Biden would be able to make meaningful changes around trade regardless of whether Republicans retain Senate control, and there is an expectation that he would undertake a “review” of Trump's trade remedies, including under sections 232 and 301, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.

Biden is unlikely to “walk back” the tariffs on China, though it is likely Biden would take a less antagonistic approach to dealing with China, said Peter Friedmann, a lobbyist with FBB Federal Relations. Friedmann expects the tariffs to remain in place until at least the fall of 2021, he said while speaking on the virtual Coalition of New England Companies for Trade conference on Nov. 9.

Richard Mojica, a lawyer with Miller & Chevalier, agreed that a reversal on the China tariffs doesn't appear imminent. “At least with respect to the Chinese Section 301 tariffs under a Biden administration, his advisers and trade policy experts are not predicting any immediate changes in the short term,” he said in an email. “There are a lot of different things at play and the experts think that Biden wants to keep options open until he has a chance to talk to allies and make a unified approach to China.”

There may be some strategic reasons for keeping the Section 301 tariffs in place, Simon Lester, associate director of trade policy studies at the Cato Institute, said in a blog post. Lester would like to see the U.S. work with the European Union, Japan, Canada and others to “develop a concrete plan for negotiating new trade commitments of some sort with each other; jointly negotiate with China to force it to upgrade its liberalization commitments; and jointly bring WTO complaints against China.” While Lester would prefer to see the Section 301 tariffs removed immediately, the politics involved may require some progress in other areas, he said.

Lester also would like to see an immediate reversal on Section 232 tariffs. “Repeal them all as quickly as possible,” he said. “This will help the U.S. economy and repair relations with allies. Repeal won't necessarily be easy, because there are interest groups who benefit from the tariffs/quotas and will lobby to keep them in place. The Biden administration might have to come up with something to offer these groups as an alternative.”